DOH confirms Region 6’s ‘High Risk’ COVID status

By Joseph B.A. Marzan

The Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) on Monday confirmed that the region is now classified as ‘High Risk’ for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the steady rise in its risk factors.

DOH-WV CHD Infectious Diseases Cluster chief Dr. Mary Jane Juanico told TeleRadyo last June 10 that the region was already under high risk, but the numbers were not clearly reported.

But on Monday, DOH-WV CHD Non-communicable Diseases Cluster head Dr. Bea Camille Natalaray confirmed the region’s high risk status in the online program “Isyung Bakuna”, citing spikes in its Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) and Healthcare Utilization Rate (HCUR) as of June 13, 2021.

According to the DOH-WV CHD data, Western Visayas logged 55,847 COVID-19 cases, with 11,712 active cases, 42,832 recoveries, and 1,285 deaths.

The region’s ADAR, which is the number of cases in an area over a 14-day period per 100,000 population, increased to 7.12 cases in the last 14 days, from 5.67 cases in the last 28 days.

An ADAR of over 7, according to the DOH’s framework, is considered “High”, while rates from 1 to 7 are “Moderate” and less than 1 is ‘Low’.

The HCUR, which is the rate of the use of beds and mechanical ventilators, increased to 66.29 percent, from 63.37 percent on June 5, with the former rate still in the “Moderate” column based on the DOH framework.

The HCUR spike was due to the increased bed utilization, which is now at the Moderate rate of 67.11 percent. Mechanical ventilator utilization, however, remains Low at 56.96 percent.

Based on hospital admissions, 57 percent of the cases are critical, 21 percent are either mild or moderate, 19 percent are asymptomatic, and 4 percent are severe.

The region’s positivity rate also increased to 7.7 percent on June 13 from 7.3 percent on June 5.

The region’s Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which is the number of deaths over the total number of cases, is 2.30 percent, higher than the national CFR of 1.73 percent and the global CFR of 2.16 percent.

Meanwhile, the 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR) slowed down to 25 percent in the last 14 days, from 39.60 percent in the last 28 days.

2WGR refers to the percentage rate of growth in COVID-19 cases over a 14-day period.

2WGRs between 0 and 200 percent are considered as ‘Moderate’, while 2WGRs below or equal to 0 are classified as ‘Low’.

The DOH framework indicated that if the ADAR is ‘High’ and the 2WGR is ‘Moderate’, the overall risk classification would be ‘High’.

The ADAR, HCUR, and 2WGR are taken into consideration by the DOH in recommending an area’s community quarantine status.

On a per-area basis, the provinces of Aklan and Guimaras escalated to over-all ‘High Risk’ classification, joining the cities of Iloilo and Bacolod, while Iloilo province remained at ‘Moderate.

Aklan and Capiz joined Negros Occidental in the ‘Low’ column.

While Aklan’s HCUR has been ‘Low’ (35.50 percent), it posted dramatic increases in its 2WGR (98 percent from -13.28 percent) and ADAR (8.02 from 4.05).

Guimaras’ elevation to ‘High’ risk was due to its high ADAR (7.18 from 3.25) and HCUR (73.85 percent) and its moderate 2WGR (121 percent from 54.55 percent).

Iloilo City remained ‘High’ due to continued increase in its ADAR (21.94 from 16.93) and a critical HCUR (85.77 percent), while its 2WGR decreased (30 percent from 95.35 percent).

Bacolod City also experienced increases in its 2WGR (45 percent from 40.44 percent) and ADAR (20.16 from 13.95) and a moderate HCUR (64.6 percent).

Iloilo province’s retention as ‘Moderate’ was due to the increase in its ADAR (5.93 from 4.14). its HCUR also remained moderate (67.12 percent) while its 2WGR decreased (43 percent from 131.47 percent).

Antique saw a downtrend in its 2WGR (-4 percent from 69.71 percent) and ADAR (3.28 from 3.43) while its HCUR remained low (57.05 percent).

Capiz also had decreases in its 2WGR (-10 percent from 63.59 percent) and ADAR (5.22 from 5.77) while its HCUR remains high (78 percent).

Negros Occidental’s 2WGR (-8 percent from -7.74 percent) and ADAR (3.69 from 4.02) decreased even as its HCUR also remained low (48.94 percent).

Natalaray said the rise in cases in the region was due to intensified contact tracing and testing in these areas.

“In the past few weeks, we have recorded our highest cases per day, and this was because we contact traced and tested many, and thus we catch many cases. We may be able to detect more positive cases from close contacts,” said Natalaray.

As to foreign COVID-19 variants, Natalaray said that they are still awaiting confirmation from the Philippine Genome Center in Quezon City.

She said that the Western Visayas Medical Center (WVMC) Sub-National Laboratory in Mandurriao, Iloilo City sent out 42 specimens from areas with clustered cases in the last week.

She added that cases of foreign variants reported last week included Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) and Locally-Stranded Individuals (LSI) from Iloilo province, Antique, Iloilo City, and Negros Occidental. They have all recovered.

 

VACCINATION

Natalaray also delivered the region’s weekly vaccination report.

As of June 13, a total of 274, 291 individuals in the region have been vaccinated, with 91,366 already received their second dose.

This represents 16.48 percent of the 1,663,940 masterlisted under vaccination priority group A.

By sub-group, the A1 group (Frontline workers in health facilities) had the most vaccinations with 95,744 (73.96 percent of 129,459 masterlisted persons).

The A2 group (Senior citizens) has 94,642 (11.99 percent of 789,635 masterlisted) and A3 group (Persons with co-morbidities) with 79,107 (59.11 percent of 133,823 masterlisted).

Based on the number of individuals, Iloilo province has vaccinated the most number of individuals in at least the first dose with 73,870.

Negros Occidental has inoculated 53,608 persons, followed by Iloilo City (42,403), Bacolod City (31,852), Capiz (22,578), Aklan (20,906), Antique (20,746), and Guimaras (8,328).

Iloilo province also topped the administration of the second dose (21,750), followed by Iloilo City (14,276), Negros Occidental (13,430), Capiz (11,137), Bacolod City (10,926), Aklan (8,774), Antique (8,368), and Guimaras (2,705).