DOE sees 2027 red alerts as El Niño strains grids

The Department of Energy is projecting possible red alerts in all three major power grids next year as El Niño could cut generation and drive up electricity demand, raising the risk of supply shortages for households and businesses.

The DOE’s preliminary outlook shows one potential red alert in Luzon, four in the Visayas and two in Mindanao, even after accounting for an additional 253 megawatts of battery capacity.

The projections do not include all planned government interventions, such as additional power barges, and do not mean that power interruptions will necessarily occur.

A red alert signals that available supply may be insufficient to meet demand and required reserves, which can lead to load curtailment.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said El Niño could reduce hydropower generation by at least 60% and solar output by about 20%.

Electricity demand could also rise by around 100 megawatts for every 1-degree increase in temperature, further tightening supply.

Extreme heat could cause additional unplanned outages at existing power plants, and Garin said the government could not yet guarantee that interruptions would be avoided next year.

“I’m not, I’m not that confident, ‘no? I’m not that confident kasi may mga red alerts pa,” Garin said when asked whether the country could avoid brownouts in 2027.

The DOE is pursuing additional power barges, particularly for the Visayas, which Garin identified as especially vulnerable to shortages.

DOE Director Luningning Baltazar said the department has received expressions of interest totaling 293 megawatts for possible power barge deployment in 2027.

The DOE is helping interested parties identify grid connection requirements and possible contracting arrangements.

The department is also coordinating the planned deployment of about 267 megawatts of battery energy storage capacity across the Visayas, which could store excess daytime renewable generation for use during evening demand periods.

The DOE is accelerating 200 power projects under its Task Force 200 initiative, with 55 projects, including battery storage developments, completed as of Oct. 26.

The agency is coordinating with hydropower operators and the National Irrigation Administration to manage available water resources and with electric cooperatives to strengthen emergency response and contingency plans.

Hospitals, emergency medical services and water supply facilities classified as critical facilities are required to maintain functioning backup power capable of supporting operations for at least 72 hours.

Garin said the government still has time to prepare additional supply measures and urged households and businesses to conserve electricity to ease pressure on the power system.