Did disinformation kill youth support for the ICC probe?

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Support among Gen Z and millennial Filipinos for the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs has sharply declined following his arrest and detention in The Hague, according to public opinion firm WR Numero Research.

Data from WR Numero’s Philippine Public Opinion Monitor, drawn from nationally representative surveys conducted in March 2024, April 2025, and November 2025, reveal what the firm describes as a dramatic collapse in enthusiasm for the ICC proceedings across nearly all age groups.

National approval of the ICC’s actions fell from 59% in March 2024 to 32% in April 2025, a month after Duterte was flown to The Hague on March 11, 2025, to face charges of crimes against humanity, including murder and attempted murder linked to extrajudicial killings during the drug war.

Opposition surged from 29% to 46% over the same period, while uncertainty rose from 13% to more than 22%.

The steepest decline was recorded among Gen Z Filipinos. In March 2024, roughly 7 in 10 Gen Z respondents (69%) supported the ICC’s investigation – the highest level of support among all age groups. By April 2025, that figure had plunged to 31%, a 39-percentage-point drop.

Millennials likewise pulled back, with support contracting from 57% to 33%. Gen X dropped from 56% to 32%, while even Baby Boomers, the least supportive cohort to begin with, declined from 44% to 36%.

Double-digit decreases were also recorded among the Silent Generation, down 13.5 percentage points.

A similar pattern emerged when Filipinos were asked whether President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should prioritize cooperation with the ICC. National support fell from 58% in March 2024 to 47% in April 2025, with the share of respondents who were unsure doubling from 12% to 25%.

Among Gen Z respondents, support for Marcos’s ICC cooperation slid from 65% to 49%. Millennial support declined from 61% to 43%, and Gen X from 52% to 46%. Baby Boomers were the only generational cohort to register an increase, with support rising from 44% to 52%.

On the question of whether Duterte should remain under ICC custody and personally face his case in The Hague, support eroded from 62% in April 2025 to 44% in November 2025. Opposition climbed from 20% to 33% over the same period.

Millennials and Gen X registered the steepest declines on continued detention, with both groups dropping more than 20 percentage points – from 63% to 42% and 63% to 39%, respectively. Baby Boomers fell from 62% to 49%. Gen Z saw the smallest drop, from 60% to 50%, with uncertainty remaining relatively stable at around 22%.

Crosstabulated data from November 2025 show modest differences between sexes. Among Gen Z Filipinos, slightly more female respondents (53%) than male (48%) agreed that Duterte should remain under ICC custody.

Male millennials, meanwhile, were more likely than their female counterparts to support Duterte personally facing trial, at 38%. Income differences were also evident, with higher-income Gen Z Filipinos more likely to support continued ICC custody, while disagreement and uncertainty were more pronounced among lower-income respondents.

On the ICC’s potential arrest of Duterte’s alleged co-perpetrators, a majority of Filipinos still called it important, but that majority is shrinking. The share who considered it important fell from 61% in April 2025 to 51% in November 2025, while those who said it was unimportant rose from 21% to 26%.

Among Gen Z, the share who said co-perpetrator arrests were not important climbed from 19% to 29% – the largest uptick in that category among any cohort.

DISINFORMATION FACTOR

In his full survey report, WR Numero Senior Research Associate Buboy Figueroa cited two factors that may have contributed to the shift in younger Filipinos’ views.

First, more Gen Z and millennial Filipinos are relying on social media as their primary source of news.

The 2025 Reuters Institute Digital News Report indicates that Facebook (68%) and TikTok (48%) were the leading platforms where Filipinos encountered disinformation, while eight in ten Filipinos relied on online sources for news.

“For a generation that processes news primarily through algorithmically curated feeds, where disinformation is rampant, exposure to political messaging is difficult to disentangle from genuine opinion formation. Journalists documented coordinated online propaganda from networks of Duterte supporters framing the arrest of the former president as a victim of kidnapping and political persecution,” Figueroa observed.

Second, Duterte’s arrest has been framed as part of the elite power struggle between rival factions, which may influence how the ICC’s actions are perceived.

“The ICC arrest was preceded by a highly public collapse of the alliance between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte. The rift made it possible for the Philippine government to assist with the Interpol arrest warrant against his predecessor. For young Filipinos who already carry considerable distrust of political elites, what was unfolding in The Hague was as much a contest between rival dynasties as it was a pursuit of justice,” Figueroa said.

He added that sustained political messaging, elite conflict and competing online narratives are shaping how younger Filipinos assess justice and accountability.

WR Numero also found no settled national consensus on the drug war itself. Some 42% of respondents agreed the drug war was ineffective, 35% disagreed, and 23% were undecided.

Disagreement was highest among Baby Boomers (45%) and lowest among millennials, the same cohort that saw among the sharpest drops in ICC support.

The March 2024 and April 2025 nationwide surveys each had a margin of error of ±2% at a 95% confidence level.

The November 2025 survey, conducted from Nov. 21 to 28, was done through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,412 Filipinos at a ±3% margin of error and 95% confidence level.

“This complexity is precisely what makes the trajectory of public opinion worth watching. Legal proceedings move slowly, but public opinion does not — and the data suggest that the window for building durable public support for accountability may be narrowing. The struggle over the drug war’s legacy is far from over, and the battle for public opinion may prove as consequential as the legal proceedings itself. Duterte may be in The Hague, but his effect on how Filipinos—especially younger generations—think about accountability and justice remains very much alive,” Figueroa said.