Daily Covid-19 cases in WV remain low in February

By Joseph B.A. Marzan

 

The daily average number of new coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) cases in the Western Visayas region remained low in February 2021, the Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) reported on February 24, 2021.

The DOH-WVCHD’s data indicated as of February 23, the region has a total of 24,451 cases, 86% of which (21,699) are local cases.

The average number of new cases in February was 54 cases per day, a slight uptick from the 52 new cases per day in December 2020 and January 2021.

The latest daily number is way lower from 194 cases per day back in September 2020.

Breaking down the cases, 1,012 (4.12%) are active cases, 22,785 (92.8%) recoveries, and 738 (3.01%) deaths.

As of February 22, the 15 DOH-accredited laboratories in the region have tested 477,933 specimens, with 25,000 testing positive, or a 5.3% rate positivity rate.

As to the presence of symptoms, 68.7% were asymptomatic, 25.1% were considered mild cases, and 6.23% were severe or critical cases.

The Health Care Utilization Rate (HCUR), which is one of the measures that determine an area’s community quarantine (CQ) status, is at 49.82%.

The HCUR data is based on the availability of health facilities like hospital beds in the region.

As of Monday, 77 percent of the region’s 78 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds are still available and 69% of the 932 isolation beds.

Also, 92% of COVID ward beds are still available and 89% of 124 ventilator machines.

CASE CLUSTERS

The DOH-WV CHD also reported that as of February 23, Iloilo province logged the most number of clustered Covid-19 cases in the region.

Passi City topped the list with 110 cases, followed by Miag-ao with 50, Pototan with 15, Barotac Nuevo, Pavia, and San Enrique with 9 each, San Rafael and Oton with 8 each, Carles with 6, Tigbauan with 4, San Joaquin and Mina with 3 each, and Dueñas, New Lucena, Banate, Dumangas, Dingle, Lemery, and Calinog with 2 cases each.

In Aklan, the town of Libacao had the most number of clustered Covid-19 cases with 18, Numancia with 15, Kalibo with 15, Banga with 9, New Washington with 5, Malay with 4, and Ibajay with 3.

Negros Occidental showed a low number of clustered cases, with only the cities of San Carlos, Silay, and Sagay reporting 9 cases, 7 cases, and 4 cases respectively.

In Capiz, the clustering of cases slightly went down in the last two weeks – Roxas City with 4 cases, Pilar with 3, and Tapaz with 2.

The clustering of cases in the cities of Iloilo and Bacolod were based on districts and barangays, respectively.

In Iloilo City, Jaro district had the highest number of clustered cases with 47, Mandurriao and La Paz with 12 each, City Proper at 4, and Arevalo at 3.

In Bacolod City, all clustered cases in the barangays were at single digits, with Handumanan and Mandalagan at 6 each, Tangub with 5, Alijis with 4, Mansilingan with 3, and Singcang-Airport, Granada, and Sum-ag at 2 each.

No clustered cases were recorded in the last two weeks in Antique and Guimaras provinces.

The top barangays in the region being monitored by the DOH-WV CHD include:

– Imbang Grande, Passi City, Iloilo (34 cases);

– Poblacion Ilawod, Pass City, Iloilo (20 cases);

– Poblacion, Libacao, Aklan (16 cases);

– Linabuan Sur, Banga, Aklan (9 cases);

– Sablogon, Passi City, Iloilo (9 cases);

– Imbang Pequeño, San Enrique, Iloilo (9 cases);

– Tacas, Miag-ao, Iloilo (8 cases);

– Bulwang, Numancia, Aklan (7 cases);

– Naclub, Miag-ao, Iloilo (7 cases);

– Pandac, Pavia, Iloilo (7 cases);

– Rumbang, Pototan, Iloilo (7 cases); and

– M.H. Del Pilar, Jaro, Iloilo City (7 cases).

Dr. Mary Jane Juanico, head of the DOH-WV CHD’s Infectious Diseases Cluster said in a virtual press conference on Wednesday that the number of cases in these barangays is also going down.

“It is good to note that most of these barangays are slowly turning into zero. There have been many recovered cases there. We expect that in the next week to come, these cases will be changed already,” said Juanico.

 

RISK CLASSIFICATION

Based on the DOH-WV CHD’s Risk Classification Framework, Western Visayas is seen to remain in the Moderate General CQ status.

The framework is based on the following factors: number of active cases, number of barangays with new cases in the last 14 days, Social Risk, Economic Risk, the Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR), the 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR) and the Covid-19 Dedicated Utilization Rate.

The Social and Economic Risks in the framework are based on data indicated in the Covid-19 Philippines LGU Monitoring Platform.

The platform uses the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance Using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler for Early Detection of Diseases (FASSTER) system developed by the DOH, the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Council for Health Research and Development (DOST-PCHRD), and the Ateneo De Manila University.

Social and Economic Risks are rated as Low, Medium, and High.

The ADAR is the number of cases per 100,000 population, while 2WGR refers to the increase or decrease in cases in an area within two weeks.

The Covid-19 Dedicated Utilization Rate also refers to the HCUR.

On social risk, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo province, Iloilo City, and Negros Occidental are all classified as ‘High’, while Aklan and Bacolod City are in ‘Medium’.

On economic risk, Iloilo province, Iloilo City, Negros Occidental, and Bacolod are considered ‘High’, while Capiz is ‘Medium’, and Aklan and Antique are ‘Low’.

Guimaras is the only area with a ‘Low’ classification in both social and economic Risks.

Aklan is the lone province with a ‘High’ ADAR/2WGR Classification under the framework, with a moderate ADAR of 1.85 and a high 2WGR of 214%.

Guimaras and Antique are both in the ‘Moderate’ column of the framework, having either high or moderate rates of ADAR and 2WGR.

Guimaras has a low ADAR of 0.93, but a high 2WGR of 1,100%.

Antique has the lowest ADAR in the region at 0.07, but a high 2WGR of 200%.

Iloilo province, Iloilo City, and Capiz are in the ‘Low’ classification, with a combination of low and moderate numbers in either ADAR or 2WGR.

Iloilo province has a moderate ADAR at 1.28 and a low 2WGR at -26%.

Iloilo City also has a moderate ADAR of 1.90 and a low 2WGR at -36%.

Capiz, meanwhile, has a low ADAR at 0.24 but a moderate ADAR at 108%.

Negros Occidental and Bacolod City are both in the lowest ‘Minimal’ status, both having low ADAR and 2WGR.

Negros Occidental has an ADAR of 0.36 and a 2WGR of -52%, and Bacolod City has an ADAR of 0.17 and a 2WGR of -32%.

All of the areas in Western Visayas have a ‘Low’ Covid-19 Dedicated Utilization Rate, except for Guimaras which has a ‘Moderate’ rating.

Guimaras has a rating of 61.24%, followed by Capiz with 59.85%, Iloilo City with 54.24 percent, Antique with 46.65%, Iloilo province with 45.17%, Bacolod City with 44.07%, Negros Occidental with 43.94%, and Aklan with a flat zero rate.

The areas the DOH-WV CHD is focusing on from Feb. 17 to 22 are:

– Kalibo, Aklan (36 cases);

– Libacao, Aklan (10 cases);

– Bugasong, Antique (2 cases);

– Roxas City, Capiz (8 cases);

– Nueva Valencia, Guimaras (15 cases);

– Buenavista, Guimaras (5 cases);

– Banate, Iloilo (74 cases);

– Passi City, Iloilo (15 cases);

– Pavia, Iloilo (10 cases);

– San Enrique, Iloilo (10 cases);

– Lambunao, Iloilo (8 cases);

– Jaro, Iloilo City (25 cases);

– Mandurriao, Iloilo City (12 cases);

– Lapuz, Iloilo City (6 cases);

– Arevalo, Iloilo City (6 cases);

– San Carlos City, Negros Occidental (3 cases);

– Silay City, Negros Occidental (3 cases); and

– Brgy. Taculing, Bacolod City (3 cases).

Juanico said that these areas of focus, which are still subject to change depending on the number of cases, may also be the basis of the national government’s prioritization in the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines if they will not be delivered in bulk.

“This can also be the basis of our prioritization later on for Covid-19 vaccination. As per initial guidance from the national office, the regional office may also suggest areas with an increase in the number of cases or number of cases found to be higher in the last three months. These can be the areas where we can prioritize if the vaccines are not coming in bulk,” Juanico said.