DA-6 trains staff on crop, livestock production forecast

By John Noel E. Herrera

To improve and strategically deliver different interventions to the farming sector, the Department of Agriculture in Western Visayas trained its technical personnel on crop and livestock production forecasting at the Western Visayas Integrated Agricultural Research Center in Iloilo City.

40 personnel including report officers and technical staff from the Research Division, Agribusiness and Marketing Assistance Division, and Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Division of DA-6 took part in the workshop.

DA-6 said that the workshop is needed considering that production forecasts are necessary for performing policy decisions and strategies to block food insecurity and price instability.

Senior Agriculturist Clark Melendres said that “it is imperative to equip agency staff with data forecasting systems since Philippine Statistics Agency (PSA) is no longer mandated to come up with estimates or production forecasts.”

He also said that they need to utilize and analyze time series data, particularly production forecasts because once it is available per cropping season, these forecasted data can serve as tools for making sound policy decisions and strategies to boost actual crop and livestock production.

Freelance statistician Sheena Balinsoy also discussed the basic statistical concepts and data sources, Time Series concepts, and Time Series Analysis using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Modeling in the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS).

The participants were also involved in generating local production forecasts using ARIMA and SPSS, especially on rice, corn, vegetables, and other significant commodities in the region.

DA-6 also stressed that reliable production forecasts will aid the agency in creating a response to the current and emerging farming issues such as the increasing input prices and climate conditions to avert further production shortfalls.

Western Visayas is significantly contributing to the country’s overall livestock and poultry industry performance as the region ranks second in terms of carabao supply, and fourth on cattle and goats with a sufficiency level of 183 percent.

The region also continues to be free from African Swine Fever and ranks second in swine production, and ranks fifth in terms of chicken production.