Critical juncture

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Impeachment is a major battlefront in the current war between House Duterte and House Marcos. Next week, the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte will reach a critical juncture when the House of Representatives deliberates on the case in plenary. The House is expected to decide on the impeachment complaint against the vice president — either send it to the Senate for trial or dismiss it.

The House Justice Committee, which handles the impeachment complaint against Sara Duterte, has already made two crucial decisions on the case. In a 53-0 vote, the House Justice panel found probable cause in the two impeachment complaints. In a related decision, the House Justice panel also voted unanimously, 55-0, to adopt the committee report on the articles of impeachment.

Vice President Sara Duterte is charged by the House Committee on Justice with betrayal of public trust, culpable violation of the Constitution, corruption, and other high crimes over the following acts: misuse or abuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and a plot to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., first lady Liza Marcos, and former Speaker and Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez. The adoption of the report sends the case to the plenary, where House members will vote on whether to impeach the vice president. At least one-third, or 106, of all 318 House members are required for her to be impeached.

The battle over the impeachment of Sara Duterte has shifted to the floor of the House. Will the administration muster enough numbers to impeach her? Can the Duterte camp marshal enough support to prevent the impeachment? The outcome of the vote will demonstrate who has the numbers at present. It will show who has the upper hand in the War of Houses. More than a battle of numbers, the impeachment of Sara Duterte is a display of clout, reach, and depth of influence.

Last year, Team Tigre proved its sway over the House and stamped its footprint on the political landscape by mobilizing more than two-thirds of the members of Congress to endorse the impeachment of Sara Duterte. The previous impeachment complaint gathered 215 signatures, sending the case to the Senate for trial. Can the current impeachment case match or even exceed the previous number?

Unlike last year, the Bongbong Marcos administration today is in a different political terrain. It is in the sunset of its term, where political blocs are looking for their place in the post-Bongbong Marcos era. The decision of the current political configurations in the House on the impeachment case of Sara Duterte will be shaped by their assessment of how the next administration will look.

The Dutertes are also banking on the possible outcome of the 2028 presidential election in crafting their game plan to counter the impeachment of the vice president. This explains Sara Duterte’s early announcement of her presidential run in the 2028 election. Leading as the front-runner in reputable surveys among prospective presidential candidates, Sara Duterte believes her lead, albeit shrinking, will scare House members from supporting her impeachment. The Dutertes in general, and Sara Duterte in particular, are vindictive. Should she win the presidency in 2028, members of Congress who voted against her will have a taste of the infamous Duterte vengeance.

Sara Duterte’s announcement of her presidential bid did have a chilling effect on the House, where the National Unity Party, the second-biggest political party in Congress, announced in February 2026 that it would not support the second impeachment of the vice president. The Dutertes are hoping such a reaction is contagious in the House, leading to the defeat of the impeachment complaint.

House voting on Sara Duterte’s impeachment in the coming week will resolve the pestering question of who has the strength and numbers in the House — the Dutertes or the Marcoses. It will be a turning point in the war between Team Agila and Team Tigre.

Early indicators reveal Sara Duterte is likely to be impeached by the House. The unanimous 55-0 vote in the House Justice Committee indicates there are enough numbers to send the complaint to the Senate. To get one-third, or 106, only 51 more votes are needed. The administration can easily secure this number of votes.

Administration allies in the House projected that at least 180 members of Congress will vote in favor of impeachment. Even the wobbling National Unity Party is leaning toward impeachment. National Unity Party stalwart and House Deputy Speaker Ronaldo Puno said 60%, or at least 30 of its 55 members in the House, are inclined to vote in favor of impeachment.

The crucial question is not the expected impeachment of Sara Duterte but the number that the Bongbong Marcos administration can gather to support the move. If only a little over one-third of House members support the impeachment of the vice president, it will expose the weakening or dwindling support for House Marcos. This will not bode well for the Marcoses as their exit from power is getting near. They are in grave danger.

Sara Duterte being impeached by barely one-third of the House is good news for the Dutertes despite losing the impeachment battle. It means the influence of the Marcoses is waning and fading, giving the Dutertes the opportunity to consolidate and broaden their support. This outcome may have a bearing on senator-judges who will decide the case.

If, on the other hand, the Marcoses can get a huge number of members of Congress to support Sara Duterte’s impeachment — near the 215 mark, equal it, or even exceed it — it will consolidate and strengthen their control and hold over the body politic. Such a display of clout might also sway the decision of senator-judges when the case reaches the Senate.

The next few days are a critical juncture for both the Dutertes and the Marcoses.