COVID-19 surge in Visayas, Mindanao to last for a month

By Sean Rafio and Joseph B.A. Marzan

The increase in COVID-19 cases in parts of Visayas and Mindanao is expected to last for at least a month, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.

Experts from the OCTA Research group said that the cases in some parts of Visayas and Mindanao would drop after one month, even with heightened restrictions.

“Usually, mga at least one month inaabot ng surge sa isang locality… For a small LGU, usually one month at least pero sometimes it could take up to two months even with heightened restrictions,” Professor Guido David said in a Laging Handa briefing.

Professor Ranjit Rye warned that the spike in infections could soon translate to high hospital occupancy rates if no actions are taken.

“Ang panawagan namin sa national government, magpadala na tayo ng tao diyan, magpadala na tayo ng equipment, magpadala na tayo ng suporta natin dito sa mga lugar na ‘to,” he said.

The Department of Health (DOH) earlier said additional vaccines would be sent, and more health facilities would be set up in areas facing an uptick in infections.

The agency is also looking into the deployment of health workers from Metro Manila to other regions.

BY THE NUMBERS

Data released by OCTA Research on Tuesday indicated that the cities of Iloilo, Bacolod, and Roxas in Western Visayas are among the top 30 cities with the highest growth rate of COVID-19 in the first week of June 2021.

OCTA classified Bacolod City (4th), Iloilo City (5th), and Roxas City (30th) as “LGUs of concern” based on figures from DOH.

The top three cities with the fastest infection rates were Davao City, Quezon City, and Cagayan De Oro City. Bacolod and Iloilo cities were ahead of Manila (6th).

The cities of Davao, Cagayan De Oro, General Santos, Tuguegarao, Butuan, Koronadal, Dumaguete, Cotabato, and Batangas were also classified by OCTA Research as “LGUs of concern”.

Davao City logged the highest number of average new cases per day at 213 or 44 percent from the 147 average new cases compared to the previous week, while Dumaguete City has the highest percent of growth rate among the LGUs with 195%.

Quezon City has the second highest number of average new cases with 207 followed by Cagayan de Oro with 118 average new cases, Bacolod with 112 average cases, Iloilo City with 111 cases, Manila with 102 cases, Parañaque with 80 cases, Pasig and Caloocan with 79 cases, and General Santos with 72 average cases.

The ranking is based on several factors – current daily average for new COVID-19 cases between June 1 to 7, the previous average of new cases between May 25 to 31, the growth rate between the two daily averages, the Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR), Hospital Bed Utilization Rate (HBUR), and Intensive Care Unit bed utilization rate (ICUR).

The ADAR refers to the number of cases in an area over a 14-day period per 100,000 population compared to the total population, while the HBUR and ICUR refer to the rate of hospital and ICU beds, respectively, used by COVID-19 patients.

Bacolod City posted a 26 percent of growth in the number of COVID-19 cases, with an average of 112 new cases per day between June 1 to 7. Its daily average from May 25-31 was 89 cases.

Bacolod’s ADAR was 19.14 cases, HBUR at 73 percent, and ICUR at 50 percent.

Iloilo City logged a 6 percent growth in daily averages at 111 new cases per day on June 1 to 7 against 89 cases on May 25 to 31. Its ADAR was 23.42 cases, HBUR at 83 percent, and ICUR at 97 percent.

Roxas City, which was at the bottom of the top 30 list, had the third highest growth rate from June 1 to 7 (55 percent) with 33 new cases per day on June 1 to 7 against 22 on May 25 to 31. Its ADAR was 18.99 cases, HBUR at 80 percent, and ICUR at 50 percent.

CASES UP AMID RESTRICTIONS

Following the request of their respective LGUs, Iloilo City and Roxas City were placed under modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) due to rising COVID cases.

Bacolod City maintained its modified general community quarantine (MECQ) status alongside other areas in Western Visayas.

Despite the strict imposition of quarantine measures, cases in Iloilo City continue to log three-digit spikes in cases daily from June 1 to June 8.

The city recorded its highest number of cases on June 7 with 136 followed by 125 on June 4; and 124 on June 2.

As of June 9, the total active cases in Iloilo City climbed to 2,269 with 220 deaths.

Bacolod City has 1,578 active cases with 276 deaths and Capiz has 743 active cases with 109 deaths. (With a report from ERS)