Coping with ‘bed weather’

By Herbert Vego

FOR two days, I stayed in bed, feeling too dizzy to write. In my mind, there was nothing to blame but Typhoon Inday and the heavy rains that leaked through the rusty roof of my apartment. Anyway, it was nothing compared with the havoc wrought in the worst-hit places.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) had reported at least 17 deaths and nine people missing due to drowning and landslides in the Mindanao provinces of Sarangani, Lanao del Sur, and Bukidnon. By the time this paper goes to print, the figures may have increased.

The combined effects of Inday and the southwest monsoon have affected 112,500 families, or around 514,700 individuals, across the country, according to the NDRRMC.

As I was writing this yesterday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced that Typhoon Inday had exited the country and that no active tropical cyclone had formed immediately afterward. Sana, totoo.

But here’s the rub: The latest word from PAGASA is that there is now a 92% probability of another “monster” hitting the Philippines — a “super El Niño.”

“Super El Niño” refers to a phenomenon that brings a high risk of prolonged droughts, agricultural disruptions, and extreme heat waves across the country.

Department of Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. warned in a radio interview that El Niño could push many provinces into below-normal rainfall conditions by October.

We do not see that in our viewfinder yet. But as the saying goes, “To be forewarned is to be forearmed.”

We are alarmed because El Niño could precipitate a long rainless period or drought due to climatic aberrations. It is a national emergency that we are helpless to fend off.

Solidum urged farmers, households, and local government units to begin adjusting planting schedules, conserving water, and securing alternative irrigation sources before conditions worsen toward year-end.

Widespread droughts could heavily affect palay output, putting pressure on rice reserves and potentially forcing an increase in imports.

Lower-than-average precipitation threatens water reserves and hydropower capacity, sparking concerns about water restrictions and localized power interruptions.

Ironically, while there could subsequently be fewer storms in the Philippines, any storm that makes landfall could reach a higher, more destructive category, ranging from a typhoon to a super typhoon.

PAGASA expects the southwest monsoon to prevail in the country from July to August before El Niño sets in. We learned this from a news report based on a television interview with Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

The southwest monsoon in the Philippines, or habagat, is a seasonal wind pattern that brings warm, humid air and heavy rainfall.

There was a time when Iloilo provincial agriculturist Dr. Ildefonso Toledo shared with me his knowledge of El Niño as a cyclical phenomenon that occurs every three to five years but usually does not linger long enough to paralyze agricultural productivity. In fact, it has been 21 years since El Niño crippled our rice production in 2005.

Three years later, in 2008, La Niña — a long, rainy, and stormy season — struck and brought Typhoon Frank, which devastated Iloilo City and neighboring towns with floods up to 6 feet deep.

The El Niño-La Niña climatic succession calls for ways and means to survive.

Oh well, we can always go home and plant camote in the backyard.

-oOo-

Safety tips from MORE Power

ON its Facebook page, MORE Electric and Power Corp. (MORE Power) warned that heavy rainfall may still be triggered by the southwest monsoon. Hence, let us remain alert and prepared. Here are some safety tips:

Avoid exposure to rain and beware of other health hazards, even while staying at home.

Store sufficient food, water, medicine, and other basic necessities in moderation.

Beware of wet roads during rainfall because there is always the possibility of electrocution.

Because of the heavy rains, MORE Power continues to receive power-related concerns that its linemen are ready to address.