Consumers Pessimistic in Q2, Hopeful for Q3 2025

Filipino consumers were more pessimistic in the second quarter of 2025, largely due to concerns over inflation, declining family incomes, and limited job opportunities, according to a Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) survey.

The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) conducted from April 2 to 15 showed the consumer confidence index (CI) declined to -14.0 percent in Q2 2025 from -13.0 percent in the first quarter.

A negative CI indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists among survey respondents, a reflection of subdued consumer sentiment.

“Households cited higher prices of goods, lower income, and fewer available jobs as the primary reasons for their pessimism this quarter,” the BSP noted in its report.

Despite the weaker outlook for the current period, confidence for the coming months remains strong.

The CI for the third quarter of 2025 and the next 12 months remained in positive territory, suggesting cautious optimism about near-term economic conditions.

Respondents expect inflation to stay within the national government’s 2 to 4 percent target band over the next 12 months, supporting investment and employment prospects.

“The improvement in sentiment for the next quarter was due to expectations of more available jobs, additional income, and stable prices of commodities,” the BSP said.

The CES is a quarterly survey that serves as a vital tool for the BSP’s economic monitoring and monetary policy decisions.

Of the 5,540 households identified for the second-quarter survey, 5,444 responded — a 98.3 percent response rate.

This included 2,408 households in the National Capital Region (NCR) and 3,036 in areas outside NCR (AONCR), representing 97.8 percent and 98.7 percent response rates, respectively.

High-income households made up the largest share of respondents at 43.6 percent, followed by middle-income (35.5 percent) and low-income (20.9 percent) groups.

Although the confidence index for the year ahead declined slightly, the BSP considers the continued positive outlook for the next quarter a sign of enduring consumer resilience.

The full CES report is available on the BSP website.