Consumer confidence drops in Q4 2025 but outlook positive

MANILA — Consumer confidence in the Philippines turned sharply pessimistic in the fourth quarter of 2025, weighed down by concerns over corruption, rising inflation, declining household income, and the impact of natural calamities, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The overall consumer confidence index (CI) dropped to -22.2 percent in Q4 2025 from -9.8 percent in the previous quarter, based on the latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) conducted by the BSP.

A negative CI means more households had a pessimistic view of their finances and the economy, compared to those with a positive outlook.

Despite the downturn in current sentiment, consumers remained optimistic about the future. The CI for the next quarter stood at 3.6 percent, while the 12-month outlook was at 11.8 percent — both reflecting a generally favorable near-term view.

The Q4 2025 survey identified the main drivers of pessimism as “graft and corruption concerns, higher inflation, lower household income, and unfavorable weather conditions and other natural calamities,” the BSP said.

The CES was conducted from October 1 to 13, 2025, with a high national response rate of 98.9 percent. A total of 5,489 households participated — 2,443 from the National Capital Region (NCR) and 3,046 from areas outside the NCR (AONCR). The sample represented 5,552 eligible households.

High-income households comprised the largest share of respondents at 41.8 percent, followed by middle-income households at 38.3 percent and low-income households at 19.8 percent.

Inflation expectations remained steady, with households anticipating that price increases will stay within the government’s 2.0–4.0 percent target range over the next year.

According to the BSP, “well-anchored household inflation expectations” help support investments and job creation.

The CES is a vital tool used by the BSP to assess consumer sentiment and guide monetary policy decisions.

Its insights contribute to shaping economic strategies aimed at supporting stable growth.