‘COMPOUNDING RISK’: Iloilo City preps for cascading effects of El Niño, fuel crisis

By Rjay Zuriaga Castor

The Iloilo City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (CDRRMO) said the city government’s emphasis on foresight and localized disaster planning is key to staying prepared as the city simultaneously faces the effects of a fuel crisis and the looming El Niño phenomenon.

CDRRMO head Donna Magno said the twin challenges represent a compound risk, which arises when one hazard sets off or worsens another, creating layered or cascading impacts.

“This is what we call compounding risk. We are facing one danger, and there is another one. It is multi-hazard and multi-risk also. We have a problem with energy, and there is El Niño,” she said on Tuesday, May 12.

Magno stressed that the city’s approach now centers on anticipating scenarios rather than responding to single, isolated hazards.

“One of the things we practice is to have foresight. We anticipate what is going to happen. We do not just look at single hazards but multiple hazards,” she added.

Magno said the city is better prepared this time, citing the establishment of the Crisis Management Council, which was created at the height of the State of National Energy Emergency triggered by fuel supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions.

On Monday, May 11, the Crisis Management Council held its sixth weekly meeting to discuss preparations for the expected impact of El Niño.

The state weather bureau announced a 79% to 80% probability of El Niño development in the coming months, which may extend into early 2027.

Magno said the city is at “high risk” of extreme heat, citing the increase in infrastructure development that also drives the urban heat island (UHI) effect.

UHI is a phenomenon where cities experience significantly higher air and surface temperatures than surrounding rural areas.

She added that the Crisis Management Council regularly conducts scenario-setting exercises, including alert level assessments tied to extreme heat conditions and energy supply concerns.

“At every alert level, there are corresponding scenarios and interventions. If we only focus on response, we will only have short-term solutions. We also need long-term responses,” she said.

Magno also emphasized the importance of agility in governance, noting that rapid analysis and decision-making allow the city to convert planning into action.

“With foresight and agility combined, what you see the city government doing now is a product of that,” she said.

She also underscored the need for cooperation across sectors and communities, pointing out that preparedness begins at the household level through awareness and self-protection measures.

Localized disaster response

Magno highlighted the city’s shift toward localized disaster governance through district-level coordination structures.

“Before, we only had city and barangay disaster committees. Now we have district-level councils. We cannot cover 180 barangays alone, so we course efforts through district councils,” she said.

She said hazards are increasingly transboundary, affecting multiple communities at once, making coordination essential.

“The effects of our hazards are transboundary. It’s not only your barangay that is affected, but others also. We need to help each other. It’s localizing the efforts because the more players we have, the better,” she said.

Magno said the CDRRMO has also intensified public information campaigns, urging households to prepare for prolonged heat conditions and potential water scarcity scenarios.

She added that contingency plans are in place for multi-month dry spells, including water conservation measures, household preparedness campaigns, and emergency response protocols.

Budget allocations have also been set aside for interventions such as community kitchens and emergency employment programs aimed at mitigating the socio-economic impact of extreme heat, particularly for informal workers and small-scale livelihoods.

“We anticipate that food security will be affected. If there is extreme heat, livelihoods are also affected,” she said.

The city government is likewise identifying areas with limited water access for possible rationing and is closely monitoring shallow wells as part of early warning and mitigation measures.