Chink in the armor

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Filipinos particularly those critical of Du30 were frustrated that despite his “murderous” rule and a host of other issues like corruption and incompetence hounding his administration, he remains popular. Notwithstanding serious questions in his handling of the most serious health crisis to hit the country in a hundred years, Du30 registered a net satisfaction rating of 79 percent in November last year.

The high net satisfaction of Du30 led some critics of his administration to disparage and vilify pollsters, especially the established ones. They are perplexed and irritated that the survey data indicate the seemingly political invincibility of Du30 in spite of his authoritarian bent and gross ineptitude.

This week the third quarter survey on the satisfaction rating of Du30 by the Social Weather Station (SWS) came out. The nationwide survey was conducted from September 12 to 16, 2021. The results indicate that on the whole, the net satisfaction rating of Du30 is 52 percent. Net satisfaction rating is determined by deducting the proportion of those dissatisfied from the proportion of those who are satisfied. In the latest survey 67 percent of those surveyed said they are satisfied while 15 percent were dissatisfied thus a 52 percent net satisfaction rating.

Compared to the second quarter data, the third quarter results show a 10 percent drop in the net satisfaction rating of Du20. In the June 2021 survey, the net satisfaction rating of Du30 was 62 percent. Looking at the first quarter survey done last May 2021 which gave Du30 a 65 percent net satisfaction, a downward trend of his rating is revealed. Going far back to the 2020 data which gave Du30 a 79 percent net satisfaction rating, the drop of his rating is huge at 27 percent.

A clearer picture on the downward trend of Du30’s net satisfaction rating emerged if viewed by major regions. In the National Capital Region (NCR), his net satisfaction rating is 48 percent. In the first quarter, it was 69 percent while in the second quarter it was 63 percent. Du30’s satisfaction rating in the region fell from 69 percent to 48 percent, indicating a 21percent drop.

Balance Luzon gave Du30 a net satisfaction rating of 44 percent. In the second quarter his net satisfaction was 58 percent. Latest data show a 14 percent decline of his net satisfaction rating. Du30’s first quarter net satisfaction rating in the region was 52 percent.

In the Visayas, Du30’s net satisfaction rating is 44 percent in the latest survey. He had a net satisfaction rating of 53 percent in the second quarter while it was 61percent in the first quarter. A 17 percent drop in Du30’s net satisfaction rating from the first quarter to the third quarter is noted in the Visayas.

It is only Mindanao where Du30’s net satisfaction rating remains “excellent” but is also weakening. In the latest survey his net satisfaction rating in the region is 76 percent. In the second quarter, it was 79 percent while in the first quarter it was 93 percent. The fall is still huge at 17 percent, from the first quarter to the third quarter.

The waning of Du30’s net satisfaction rating is also noted in the urban and rural areas. In the third quarter survey, Du30 had a net satisfaction rating of 49 percent in urban areas. The net satisfaction rating of Du30 in the second quarter was 65 percent and it was 69 percent is the first quarter. There is a 20 percent plunge in his net satisfaction rating among urban residents. Similar trend is observed in rural areas. In the latest survey, Du30’s net satisfaction among rural populace is 55 percent. In the second quarter his net satisfaction rating among them was 61 percent while it was 62 percent in the first quarter. The SWS data in the three surveys it did this year imply an erosion of the over-all net satisfaction rating of Du30 and across all geographic areas. Is this a chink in the armor of Du30? For years Du30 had been called Teflon president who is immune from negative issues and whose popularity is undented his by damaging actions. It appears this no longer holds true at present.

The evaporation of Du30’s popularity places him and the administration party in serious trouble as the 2022 election lurks in the corner. The chances of his presidential candidate (whether his daughter Sara or Bato de la Rosa) will be severely affected by his eroding popularity. Du30’s endorsement will be a “kiss of death” if the deterioration of his popularity worsens as election nears.

Plummet of Du30’s net satisfaction rating will only encourage national and local formations to distance from him and the administration party. Survey results will push more local and national figures to abandon Du30 and his administration and shift their support elsewhere.

Should the slump in Du30’s net satisfaction rating worsens in future surveys, it will reconfigure the race in 2022 and redraw the political map. More allies will jump the sinking administration ship further diminishing and splintering the ruling party. A weak candidate, either Sara Duterte, whose rating has considerably fell, or Bato de la Rosa, who is largely viewed as a nuisance candidate, coupled with a fragmented party and dwindling public support for Du30 can be fatal combination for the administration which could result to a disastrous defeat in the 2022 election.

Recent polls revealed a chink in Du30’s armor and political forces smelled blood. Du30 now appears more vulnerable than before which will be likely exploited by non-administration groups. Unless Du30 can reverse the downturn of his popularity, his march to irrelevance and rendezvous with justice is inevitable.