Canada-ASEAN free trade deal: What Filipino farmers, workers should know

Negotiators for Canada and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are pushing to close talks on a regional free trade deal in Manila this month, but the head of a Canadian business council for Southeast Asia said the questions Filipino farmers, mining communities, and workers are asking will be answered by governments, not by business.

Wayne Farmer, president of the Canada-ASEAN Business Council (CABC), told the Daily Guardian in a written interview that the “conclusion” of the ASEAN-Canada Free Trade Agreement (ACAFTA) his group plans to celebrate at the Canada-ASEAN Business Forum on Nov. 15 in Manila refers to the substantial conclusion of negotiations, not the formal signing and entry into force of the agreement.

The distinction matters because two agreements now on the table, ACAFTA and a separate Canada-Philippines free trade agreement, will set the terms under which Canadian beef, mining capital, nuclear technology, and engineering services enter the Philippine market, and under which Filipino exporters and professionals reach Canada.

For hog, cattle, and poultry raisers still recovering from African swine fever (ASF), for communities hosting Canadian mines, and for provinces outside Metro Manila such as those in Western Visayas, the fine print will decide whether the deals bring competition, investment, or both.

ACAFTA would be Canada’s first trade agreement with ASEAN as a bloc, while a bilateral deal would be the Philippines’ first free trade agreement with a North American partner, Farmer said.

Data from the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (APF Canada) cited at a CABC forum show Canadian investment into Southeast Asia fell from nearly CAD 19 billion in 2005 to 2009 to CAD 4.5 billion in 2020 to 2024. Over the same period, ASEAN investment into Canada grew almost a hundredfold.

“The figures reflect how the Canada-ASEAN investment relationship has evolved over two decades. Earlier Canadian investment in Southeast Asia was shaped largely by major resource projects, and as those cycles matured, the composition of investment changed,” Farmer said.

He said ASEAN has become “a significant source of investment into Canada, reflecting the region’s rising economic weight and the growing reach of its businesses.”

“What we see today is a true two-way relationship, and growing interest from Canadian companies looking to diversify beyond their traditional markets,” he said.

Farmer described ASEAN as a market of nearly 700 million people with an economy of over CAD 5 trillion, with Canadian interest now spanning clean energy, critical minerals, agri-food, infrastructure, and digital services.

He did not cite investment figures showing that the decline in Canadian investment had reversed.

“The opportunity lies in building on that momentum. That means strengthening business connections, helping companies understand the markets and partners available to them, and encouraging investment in both directions,” he said.

Global Affairs Canada has described the expected Manila outcome as a “substantial conclusion” of negotiations, while CABC’s forum materials speak of celebrating the conclusion of ACAFTA.

“When our Forum materials refer to celebrating the conclusion of ACAFTA, we mean the substantial conclusion of negotiations, not the formal signing and entry into force. Which elements are finalized, what remains open and the timeline for entry into force are for the negotiating governments to confirm,” Farmer said.

ASEAN and Canada launched ACAFTA negotiations on Nov. 17, 2021.

At the 15th ASEAN Economic Ministers-Canada Consultation in Manila on Sept. 22, ministers urged officials to finalize the negotiations by the ASEAN Summit in November, with signing planned for 2027, according to the meeting’s joint statement published by Global Affairs Canada.

“Negotiations are well advanced and the Philippines holds the ASEAN chair this year, which makes Manila a natural moment to bring this work to a close,” Farmer said.

“For businesses, the sooner it enters into force, the sooner they gain predictable access across the region. That is why CABC has called for timely entry into force,” he said.

The Nov. 15 forum will bring together business leaders, investors, and policymakers through sector panels, roundtables, and networking “to explore what ACAFTA could mean for their sectors and where new partnerships can take shape,” Farmer said.

Event partner APF Canada will run its portion of the forum under the APEC-Canada Growing Business Partnership (ACGBP), the foundation’s capacity-building initiative.

The Philippines is negotiating ACAFTA and a bilateral free trade agreement with Canada at the same time.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. launched the bilateral negotiations on Oct. 27, 2025. The first round, held in Manila on Feb. 18 to 20, covered market access for goods, trade in services, temporary movement of business persons, investment, intellectual property, and legal and institutional issues, according to Global Affairs Canada.

Trade Undersecretary Allan Gepty said in July that the Philippines hoped to conclude the bilateral talks in November, Philstar.com reported.

Canada was the Philippines’ 16th-largest trading partner out of 229 in 2025, with two-way trade of USD 2.15 billion. Philippine exports to Canada reached USD 1.31 billion, led by copper and refined copper, while imports from Canada stood at USD 840 million, according to the same report.

“CABC is not part of the negotiations and does not speak for either government, so the specific provisions of each agreement are for the negotiating parties to determine,” Farmer said.

“From a business perspective, the two are complementary,” he said.

Farmer said a Canada-Philippines agreement “could address priorities specific to the bilateral relationship and give exporters on both sides an early advantage in a market of more than 110 million people.”

“ACAFTA, meanwhile, offers a broader framework for engaging across ASEAN,” he said.

“Our role is to bring the business perspective into these discussions. We do that by connecting companies with regional partners, sharing market insights and facilitating dialogue with government and industry,” he added.

The forum’s food security panel features the Canada Beef Association, and its description emphasizes Canadian agricultural products meeting ASEAN’s protein needs.

Asked whether Filipino hog, cattle, and poultry producers, many of them still recovering from ASF, should see that pitch as competition, Farmer framed the relationship as cooperation.

“We see Canada-Philippines agricultural cooperation as a way to build complementary strengths. The conversation should go beyond trade to how both countries can work together through technology, knowledge-sharing, investment and partnerships that strengthen the whole value chain,” he said.

He cited the CABC joint study “Cultivating Connections: Unlocking Canada-ASEAN’s Agri-Food Trade Potential,” which identifies opportunities in agricultural technology, joint ventures, and stronger digital supply chains.

“CABC does not determine trade protections or tariff arrangements; those are for governments. What we emphasize is transparent and predictable market access, science-based standards and outcomes that support the development of the broader agricultural sector, including the producers who depend on it,” Farmer said.

He did not identify specific Canadian investment commitments in Philippine agriculture.

“At the panel, we hope to bring Philippine producers, businesses and government together to identify practical ways to advance food security and deepen cooperation,” he said.

B2Gold, which operates the Masbate Gold Project in Aroroy, Masbate, is the featured Canadian investor at the forum. Two of the four companies that met Marcos in Vancouver in July were mining firms.

Asked whether Canada’s investment story in the Philippines is mainly about extracting resources, Farmer pointed to a wider spread of sectors.

“Canada’s commercial engagement with the Philippines spans energy, critical minerals, engineering, battery technology, waste solutions, IT-BPM and digital services. President Marcos’s July 2026 visit to Canada highlighted that breadth. For Canadian companies diversifying their markets, the Philippines offers opportunities well beyond resources,” he said.

Host communities should expect companies to comply with Philippine laws, meet environmental requirements, uphold worker health and safety, and “engage meaningfully and transparently with local communities,” Farmer said.

“These should be fundamental to any investment, particularly in sectors with significant environmental and social impacts,” he said.

“CABC does not speak for individual companies or assess their operations. Our role is to encourage responsible practices and facilitate dialogue between companies, governments and communities,” he added.

“Investment should be judged not only by its commercial value but by its contribution to local capabilities and the communities where businesses operate,” Farmer said.

Asked about his own energy portfolio, which spans renewables as well as coal, diesel, bunker fuel, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and his earlier advisory role with Red Core Geothermal, Farmer said he was speaking for the council.

“I am here in my capacity as President of CABC, which represents a diverse network of Canadian businesses and institutions,” he said.

CABC members include energy companies AtkinsRéalis and Laurentis Energy Partners and institutional members Humber Polytechnic and Ontario Tech University, among others. CABC noted that Red Core Geothermal is no longer operating.

“The Philippines’ energy transition depends on expanding clean generation while keeping supply reliable and affordable as demand grows,” Farmer said.

He said Canadian capital and expertise can contribute most in areas of proven Canadian strength: geothermal, hydro, grid modernization, critical minerals, and nuclear, along with engineering and project finance.

“Our membership at CABC reflects the full energy landscape, including companies with conventional assets. Clean energy collaboration recognizes that transition takes time. It also means steering new investment toward lower-emission options that support the Philippines’ own energy goals,” he said.

Candu Energy, an AtkinsRéalis company, and a nuclear roundtable are also on the forum agenda.

“The Philippines is exploring its nuclear options, and Canada is one of the partners that can bring relevant experience to that conversation, across technology, engineering, project development and workforce training,” Farmer said.

“Nuclear development involves more than technology. It requires strong regulatory frameworks, skilled professionals, institutional capacity and close collaboration between government and industry. These are areas where Canadian experience can support knowledge-sharing,” he said.

Nuclear energy is one of CABC’s priority sectors. Its Nuclear Energy Working Group brings together Canadian businesses, technical experts, academic institutions, and regional stakeholders.

With the ASEAN Centre for Energy, CABC recently released the study “Strengthening ASEAN’s Energy Resilience through Nuclear Readiness,” which examines the institutional and workforce requirements for countries considering nuclear power.

“Each country sets its own energy roadmap. CABC’s role is to provide a platform for dialogue and connect regional partners with trusted Canadian capabilities on reactor safety, grid integration and civil nuclear technology,” Farmer said.

Every Philippine company on the forum agenda is a Manila-based conglomerate.

“We would welcome the chance to explore how Canadian expertise could support development beyond Metro Manila. Western Visayas, for example, offers potential in agri-food innovation, agricultural technology, renewable energy and IT-BPM,” Farmer said, referring to the information technology and business process management industry.

“Established Philippine groups can be valuable partners for international businesses entering regional markets, but they are one route among many,” he said.

“A key benefit of these agreements is a clear, predictable set of rules. That matters most for smaller companies on both sides, which often lack the resources to navigate complex market entry on their own,” he said.

“As ACAFTA and the bilateral agreement take shape, we expect engagement to broaden across more regions and with more local partners,” he added.

Farmer did not cite a planned mission or specific project in Western Visayas. As an example of engagement beyond capital cities, he said CABC has explored organizing a business mission to Sarawak, Malaysia, and engaging companies outside Kuala Lumpur to understand the priorities of Sarawak’s private sector and identify opportunities for collaboration with Canadian businesses.

Filipinos are among Canada’s largest immigrant communities. The forum had planned a workforce development session pairing Humber Polytechnic with the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA), but Farmer said the session is no longer part of the program.

“The specific provisions of both agreements are for the negotiating governments to determine. Trade agreements commonly include commitments on temporary entry for business persons and professionals, and that is an area of real interest to businesses on both sides,” he said.

“Recognition of foreign qualifications in Canada rests largely with provincial regulators and professional bodies,” Farmer said.

“From our perspective, workforce development is not either/or. Building skills in the Philippines and enabling the movement of talent between our countries both support stronger commercial ties, and the large Filipino community in Canada is already a bridge between the two economies,” he said.

“However, workforce development and professional mobility remain important themes in the broader Canada-ASEAN dialogue. We expect these issues to feature in discussions throughout the Forum to facilitate greater commercial engagement efforts between Canada and ASEAN,” he added.

A CABC survey found 83% of respondents optimistic about increasing their trade and investment in ASEAN over the next five years, while 75.6% are optimistic about their future profitability in the region.

The survey used a mixed-methods framework combining a structured enterprise survey and interviews with C-level executives, drawing on a baseline of about 100 enterprises from CABC and the networks of Canadian chambers of commerce across ASEAN. CABC said fieldwork follows its standard June-to-August schedule.

Despite that optimism, Canada ranked as ASEAN’s 16th-largest trading partner in 2025, according to the joint media statement of the 15th ASEAN Economic Ministers-Canada Consultation. It was ASEAN’s 10th-largest source of foreign direct investment that year.

“We would look at the broader trajectory rather than rankings alone,” Farmer said.

Canada and ASEAN have been dialogue partners since 1977 and will mark 50 years of relations in 2027.

“Canada-ASEAN merchandise trade reached CAD 52.5 billion in 2025, up 23.6% in a single year. That shows growing momentum and considerable room to grow,” he said, citing Global Affairs Canada figures.

“For Canadian companies, expanding into ASEAN can require significant time and resources to navigate diverse regulations, find local partners and build a presence across markets,” Farmer said.

He said some ASEAN markets are covered by the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) or the Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (ICA-CEPA), while others are covered by none, and competitors from Japan, Korea, Australia, and elsewhere already enjoy preferential access across the region.

“Agreements like ACAFTA can level that playing field and give businesses one predictable set of rules,” he said.

Asked what would count as failure five years after signing, Farmer pointed to small businesses.

“We would consider it a missed opportunity if these agreements were signed but businesses, especially SMEs, couldn’t turn them into tangible benefits. That is why implementation matters as much as negotiation,” he said.

In its recommendations to the 15th ASEAN Economic Ministers-Canada Consultation, CABC called for timely entry into force of ACAFTA and a public-private ACAFTA task force to address practical barriers.