Can Ugas defeat Pacquiao? Why not?

By Alex P. Vidal

“Boxing is like jazz. The better it is, the less people appreciate it.” —George Foreman

I WON’T be surprised if the 12-round WBA super welterweight (147-lb or 66 kilograms) championship fight between champion Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12 KOs) and challenger Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) on August 21 in Las Vegas will last the distance.

If the result will be decided by the three judges, there’s no guarantee that Pacquiao would be the winner—unless he scored a knockdown in the early rounds (where a mandatory eight-count is administered by the referee) like what happened in his title fight against 32-year-old Keith Thurman (29-1, 22 KOs) in Las Vegas on July 20, 2019. If not for the flash knockdown Pacquiao scored in the first round, his split decision win against Florida-based Thurman after 12 stanzas could have turned the other way.

A split decision means only two of the three judges saw Pacquiao the winner; the lone dissent thought Thurman was the boss.

As of this writing, many Filipino fight fans have already written off the 35-year-old Cuban, who stands five feet and nine inches, three inches taller than the Filipino senator, who started in professional boxing as a skinny light flyweight (108 lbs or 48 kilograms) in Sablayan, Occidental Mindoro in 1995.

 

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For being a “mere” substitute of 31-year-old Errol Spence Jr. (25-0, 21 KOs) and toting a not-so-scary ring ledger, Ugas failed to impress Pacquiao’s dyed-in-the-wool admirers.

They don’t give Ugas the ghost of a chance to beat Pacquiao; they predict the Cuban will capitulate in the first four rounds.

They think he’s a pushover with no impressive KO power; a dishwasher who could produce “only” a bronze medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics despite Cuba’s much-vaunted golden line-up and notoriety in amateur boxing.

His being orthodox in stance didn’t help lift his marketability among boxing aficionados, who believe Ugas would be an easy target for being lanky and flat-footed.

Once Pacquiao connects and catches the sturdy-chinned Ugas in the midsection, the Cuban defending titleholder will go down like a sack of potatoes because he doesn’t backpedal and sidestep like Vernon Forrest, Pernell Whitaker, Zab Judah, Andre Berto, Shane Mosley, and Felix Trinidad, they theorize.

 

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But Ugas is not illiterate.

Having studied Pacquiao’s past ring terrorism, Ugas is expected to avoid a dark alley acquaintance brawl in the early rounds; the Cuban will not place his head on the chopping block and allow a free throw from the left-handed Pacquiao without detonating his own bombs during an exchange.

Ugas might take some cue from Jeff Horn (20-3-1, 13 KOs), the last fighter to beat Pacquiao by unanimous decision in Brisbane on July 2, 2017.

Unlike Ugas, Horn is a roughhouser who used all the dirty tricks in the textbook to befuddle and handcuff Pacquiao before a cheering partisan crowd.

Pacquiao absorbed all of Horn’s bullying tactics and couldn’t catch the Aussie who moved like a pendulum.

Aware of Pacquiao’s legs who now seemed like bony twigs at 42, Ugas might hold, push and embrace his Filipino challenger in a hope to tire him out and, thus, avoid an early trip to canvas for any of them. There’s no way Ugas can settle the rivalry by knocking out Pacquiao as he apparently lacks the power to shake the Filipino’s ribcage even if Ugas will use a sledgehammer.

 

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Ugas throws his right jab like a butterfly and traps his opponent with a searing left; he uses a long range to unload his combos and creates a web to confuse his rival who will end up eating Ugas blows.

Against the aggressive Pacquiao, Ugas will stay in front and cover the Filipino’s face with his own head to force Pacquiao to untangle and pave the way for his own artillery attack.

A clash of heads and low blows by Ugas won’t be far-fetched. The fight could end up as a draw if one of them suffers a nasty cut due to accidental headbutt before four rounds.

All eyes definitely are still on the 42-year-old Filipino ring superstar, once dubbed as the best boxer in the world pound for pound. Fans used to watching Pacquiao dismantle his opponents when he was in the lower divisions, will hanker for a quick KO or TKO victory which he last scored three years ago against Lucas Martin Matthysse in Kuala Lumpur.

Whenever Pacquiao fights, the pressure put on his shoulders by bloodthirsty fans to wreck and blast to smithereens his opponent before 12 rounds is tremendous.

Against Ugas, Pacquiao will also be up against nature—the age factor; the wear and tear of absorbing brutal punishments in the square jungle for more than 20 years, not to mention the mental anguish of having to engage the powers that be in Philippine politics in a bone-jarring mind game in another dirty arena.

A stoppage win for Pacquiao may not come, this time; and if Ugas has a full tank and manages to extend the carousel, he can hack out a majority or split decision after 12 rounds, a major upset that would shock everybody.

In boxing we don’t underestimate an opponent and call him patsy even if he is a Johnny-come-lately.

(The author, who is now based in New York City, used to be the editor of two dailies in Iloilo)