Bucks vs Phoenix NBA Finals breakdown

By Leobert Julian A. de la Peña

After an estimated 84 games in the playoffs, the biggest stage is finally set and only one team will emerge as kings of the NBA.

Both the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks were unlikely picks to come out of their respective conferences. But as the playoffs went on, it became clear that these two teams deserved to advance.

With a day left before the highly-anticipated clash, let me break down some things and key matchups in this intriguing and interesting NBA Finals series.

For the first time in a decade, the NBA Finals will not have LeBron James or Stephen Curry lace their shoes and compete for the title.

This time, two small-market NBA teams will duke it out for basketball supremacy with the Suns making their first Finals appearance since 1993 and the Bucks since 1974. This is truly a one-of-a-kind Finals.

And now everything is set, join me as I start to present the matchup and the teams’ weaknesses and strengths.

First off, these two teams met twice in the regular season with Phoenix sweeping Milwaukee but only winning by just a point in each of those two outings.

In their first game, the Suns won 125-124, an effort they would repeat two months later where they would nip the Bucks in overtime, 128-127.

It was clear that the Suns’ main advantage against the Bucks during those two games was their team chemistry and ball movement as they out-assisted Milwaukee 53-44.

In addition, Phoenix was also the better team shooting from three as they sank 32 shots compared to Milwaukee’s 27 made threes.

Meanwhile, despite the loss, the Bucks showed paint dominance and proved they were the better scorers inside the paint and even outscored the suns by 22 points in the shaded area during their second game.

One thing was clear during those two games.

Everyone was capable of putting up all-star numbers and perform at a very high level with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo answering the call when their teams needed them during their matchup.

Moving on, as the NBA playoffs transpired, we saw how these teams adjusted, how these teams responded, and how they were able to weather the storm.

After their respective conference finals matchups, I will be raising these key points from the observations I made in their recent performances that can affect their NBA Finals showdown.

Front and center would be Antetokounmpo’s timetable of recovery after suffering a nasty hyperextended knee injury during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

When will the Greek Freak come back? Despite closing out the series against the Atlanta Hawks without Antetokounmpo in the last two games, the Bucks still need him to win, especially against a team led by Paul.

Yes, Bobby Portis Jr. filled in the void perfectly and was magnificent in Antetokounmpo’s absence during those two games but missing a two-time regular season MVP is a big blow.

Heading into the matchup, Antetokounmpo’s speed and ball-handling posed tons of problems during their regular-season matchups and it was clear that no defender from the Suns was able to contain him or limit his scoring ability.

The next crucial thing would be how Jrue Holiday will be playing against Paul. Known as a superb defender, Holiday earned more respect after locking down the Atlanta backcourt in Trae Young and Lou Williams.

However, he will be facing a different beast in Paul who had decent numbers against him during their regular-season meetings as he was able to score 28 and 22 respectively.

Watching film of their previous matchups, Paul liked to get Holiday in a pick-and-roll situation where he succeeded several times as he shot the ball at will against the switching Brook Lopez or dimed the rolling Ayton to the rim.

Holiday must shift things up and show different touches for Paul if he wants to win the matchup and try to fight over the screen rather than going under it.

Slowing down Paul’s pick-and-roll game will be the Bucks’ main priority on defense especially after they were exposed by Trae Young in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Before going down to a bone bruise, Young was having his way toying with the Bucks’ pick-and-roll coverage as Lopez just didn’t know what to do once Young comes off the pick.

If they can’t do any adjustment regarding their pick-and-roll defense, I think they will have a hard time dealing with Paul calling the plays in the perimeter.

Next, can Booker and Ayton bring their playoff stellar run to the Finals?

Despite their young age as first-timers in the NBA playoffs, the duo of Booker and Ayton quickly claimed their star status and were consistent from the first round to the conference finals.

Will playoff rookie jitters emerge in the limelight of the final stage? Can they deliver against the length of the Bucks?

Talking about consistency, with Antetokounmpo still down with his injury, Middleton showed he can shoot the lights out and carry a team but still faces questions about his consistency and whether he can turn it on in the Finals.

In their semifinals against the Brooklyn Nets, Middleton started the first two games with poor shooting performances then would later improve and was just inconsistent.

If the Bucks want to hang on to the series with a hobbled Antetokounmpo, Middleton should produce on a consistent basis and drop above 25 points per game if they want to win.

Digging deep into the teams’ benches, I think it would be crucial for the Bucks to have some help from their sixth to the last men with Portis Jr. only the one getting a decent presence during the playoffs.

Jeff Teague showed flashes of his younger self after getting activated by coach Mike Budenholzer in their close-out game against Atlanta and dropped 11 huge points.

Meanwhile, for the Suns, Cameron Johnson, Dario Saric, Torey Craig, and Cam Payne already proved their worth and had key performances during their finals run.

Can Milwaukee match the bench production of the Suns or will they rely on heavy numbers from their starters just like what they did against the Nets?

Last but not the least, how will the Suns contain the Bucks on the boards? By the numbers, Phoenix is ranked fourth to the last in the playoffs in terms of rebounding and was the seventh worst rebounding teams in the regular season.

When you face a team like the Bucks who crash the boards excellently, the Suns will have to do a better job boxing out the men in green who also rely on second-chance opportunities due to their high percentage offensive boards per game with 17.

As much as I want to discuss all my thoughts in this one, I think one thing would most likely happen tomorrow.

Both teams will fight hard.

Who will get the better of the other? Who will adjust quicker? Who will play with more heart and who wants it more?

Although marred by injuries, this has so far been an entertaining playoffs with young players ascending to star status. The NBA Finals will only be more entertaining as the intensity ramps up.