BRACE FOR ‘SUPER EL NIÑO’: Drought, dry spell likely to hit W. Visayas from December to March
Ferdinand Rubin, weather specialist at the Iloilo station of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, shares the rainfall forecast for Western Visayas from late 2026 until the first quarter of 2027 during the Scientific Forum in Iloilo City on Sept. 29, 2026. (Rjay Zuriaga Castor photo)
By Rjay Zuriaga Castor
ILOILO CITY — Western Visayas faces heightened water stress from December 2026 through March 2027, with rainfall forecast to fall well below normal amid an intensifying El Niño, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
PAGASA said a strong El Niño is currently present in the Pacific and is expected to strengthen into “a very strong state” by October to December 2026, persisting until the first half of 2027.
The regional forecast follows PAGASA’s Sept. 23 climate advisory, which urged government agencies and the public to put conservation and mitigation measures in place immediately.
PAGASA Iloilo weather specialist Ferdinand Rubin said on Tuesday, Sept. 29, that the region could experience below-normal rainfall in the coming months, particularly from December through March.
“We see that the entire Western Visayas could show below-normal rainfall in the coming months, especially in December, January, February, and March, that could lead to dry spell and drought,” Rubin said.
Month-by-month outlook
PAGASA’s regional rainfall outlook shows Aklan, Antique, Guimaras, and Iloilo receiving below-normal rainfall in October, while Capiz is projected to have near-normal rainfall.
Under PAGASA’s classification, rainfall at 40 percent or less of the normal amount is way below normal, 41 to 80 percent is below normal, 81 to 120 percent is near normal, and more than 120 percent is above normal.
Conditions are expected to worsen in November, when Capiz is projected to shift to below-normal rainfall and Guimaras to way below-normal rainfall, while Aklan, Antique, and Iloilo remain under below-normal conditions.
By December, all five provinces in Western Visayas are projected to experience way below-normal rainfall.
In January, way below-normal rainfall is forecast in Antique and Guimaras, while Aklan, Capiz, and Iloilo are expected to have below-normal rainfall.
All five provinces are again projected to experience way below-normal rainfall in February and March.
Water, power, and health risks
Rubin said the prolonged lack of rainfall could expose the region to a potential water crisis, while warmer temperatures could also increase electricity demand.
“If in those months there is a dearth of rainfall not just in Iloilo but almost all of Western Visayas, there could really be a water crisis that is possible,” he warned.
Rubin said the effects could cascade across sectors.
“Aside from that, if the rainfall is lacking and there are no clouds, that would mean hotter temperatures and people would tend to find more ways to cool themselves, so the use of air-conditioning units or the demand for those types of services would also go up. So, there is a problem in our energy sector,” he said.
He said the impacts of the dry spell and drought could continue even after the expected dry period.
“Even after May or June, we would still experience these impacts. We would have residual risks that can still possibly affect us,” he said.
Call for regional action
Rubin urged local government units (LGUs) to prioritize water security and adopt measures that address the interconnected risks posed by prolonged dry conditions.
He said Iloilo City’s water concerns are linked to those of surrounding towns because the city sources its water from parts of the province.
“Integrated water and urban adaptation is essential for Western Visayas because the water problem is not just a problem of Iloilo City but a problem of the whole region,” Rubin said.
“There is really a need for a whole-of-government approach, not just at the local level but at the regional level,” he added.
Rubin said the government could tap the Jalaur River Multi-Purpose Project Stage II (JRMP II) in Calinog, Iloilo, to strengthen water security in the region.
The National Irrigation Administration (NIA) said JRMP II was 86.16 percent complete as of June 2026, with completion targeted by the end of 2027 and full operations expected in 2028.
The project’s bulk water component is designed to supply about 86,400 cubic meters, or 86.4 million liters, of water per day to Iloilo City and nearby areas.
Rubin also recommended investments in drought-tolerant crops for farmers across Panay.
For urban areas, he said LGUs should pursue urban greening, nature-based solutions, and measures to mitigate heat-related illnesses, including heatstroke.
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