Bluff rebuffed

By Artchil B. Fernandez

How would the populists’ chess game turn out to be? We had a glimpse of the answer this week. Du30 and Trump, populist leaders who are autocratic, unhinged and erratic started moving the pieces across the chessboard this week and the ending remains open.  It all started with a visa.

Two weeks ago, the US government canceled the US visa of Bato de la Rosa, chief implementer of Du30’s bloody and gory war against illegal drugs. No official explanation was given and it was assumed to be connected to the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) signed in 2018 which requires countries in Indo-Pacific that are the recipient of the $ 1.5 billion US assistance to adhere to their counternarcotics strategy to international human rights standards.

Outraged that his favorite hatchet man is sanctioned, Du30 threatened to revoke the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) signed between the Philippines and the US in 1999 unless the American government fixes the problem.

A stony silence greeted Du30’s rant which only inflamed him. This week Du30 upped the ante by ordering the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) to serve the notice of termination to the US government.   He cannot be ignored.

Du30 calculated that his bold move will certainly provoke a reaction from the US government.  The US embassy which received the notice of termination merely noted that it is a “serious step with significant implications for the US-Philippines alliance.”

Such a lukewarm response led Du30 and his officials to gloat and assume they have the upper hand in this upmanship. For Du30’s spokesman Salvador Panelo the termination of VFA will lead to a warmer relationship between the two countries.

He even predicts the US will try to win back the Philippines. “I’ve been noticing that those who’ve been criticizing the US government policies have been given the preferential attention by the US government. ‘Pag nababanatan sila, sinusuyo nila (When they are being criticized, they tend to court you back),” Panelo confidently declared.

Panelo’s boast was further boosted by his principal.  Du30 claimed that US President Trump and others tried to save the VFA but he had enough. “Now, I’ll make it public, public official ako (I am a public official). Si Trump, pati yung others (Trump and the others) are trying to save the Visiting Forces Agreement. Sabi ko, ayoko (I said, ‘I don’t want to),” Du30 bragged during a gathering of local executives in Pasay.

Then a reply from the US President that is beyond the calculation of Du30.  “If they would like to do that, that’s fine, we’ll save a lot of money,” Trump coolly responded to Du30’s move. No whining, no acerbic words, no ranting. Worse for Du30 and Panelo, Trump did not show an iota of an attempt to win back the Philippines.  Trump simply does not care. For Trump, the Philippines is just one of those suckers who take advantage of America.

Du30’s “brilliant” act perfectly fits into Trump’s playbook. He failed in his foremost objective in terminating the VFA.

Bato de la Rosa’s US visa is not restored and he may never get one. ‘Ditto’ for other officials of Du30 who want to visit America. It is worst for those who have properties there or hope to secure a greener pasture for their families in the US. Trump’s reply also exposed Du30 as a liar. Surely Du30 invented the story that Trump tried to save the VFA.

In this round of the game, Du30’s bluff was rebuffed and it is one point for Trump.  Personally, there is no loss for Du30 but politically he could pay a high price for terminating the VFA. The biggest loser in this episode is the Philippine military.

The Philippine military is a creation of the US. The PMA is an American established institution and the relationship between the Philippine and US military establishments is more than a century-old. Under the VFA, the military received more than $ 1.8 billion in aid from the US in the form of war materials, weapons, training, intelligence, and other benefits.

This is what the Philippine military stands to lose immediately.

For decades, the arch-enemy of the military, the underground Left has been campaigning for the termination of the VFA. Termination will considerably affect the capability of the military to wage an anti-insurgency campaign. Du30 has just handed the mortal enemy of the AFP a tremendous political and military victory. It is a huge slap to the AFP that it is their commander-in-chief who engineered this terrible fiasco.

Forcing the Philippine military to work with the Chinese military will place the AFP in a very awkward position. How can they work with the force that grabbed Philippine territory?

Defending the territory of the country is the foremost duty of the AFP. For them to get trained by their enemy is not only plain stupidity but suicide.

Besides, re-orienting the AFP towards China will require a long and difficult process of re-socialization. The primary socialization of the AFP is with the US and this has been going on for more than a hundred years. Du30 cannot just decouple the AFP from the US in months.

Such a process takes decades and he has barely two years left.

Politically, Du30 is besieged in all fronts at present since he does not really govern the nation but use his position to advance the interests of the oligarchs and corrupt families like the Marcoses who supported his candidacy. To survive he needs the strong support of the military. But he has pulled the plug from the military and castrated the institution whose support is crucial for his political survival.

The coming months are interesting.  Before, the military saved the Balikatan Exercises which Du30 tried to stop. The AFP also successfully forced Du30 to scuttle the peace talks with the rebels and made him sign EO 70. Will the military this time succeed in saving the VFA? The dynamics between Du30 and the military is interesting to watch.  Is this the reason Trump is unconcerned with Du30’s move?

(Erratum in last week’s column: The Diliman Commune happened in 1970 and the First Quarter Storm 50 years ago. Fidel Nemenzo is Vice-Chancellor for Research and Development not Vice President of UP Diliman prior to his election as chancellor)