Between Scylla and Charybdis

By Artchil B. Fernandez

2025 was a bad year for Bongbong Marcos (BBM). He escaped it barely politically alive by surviving attempts to overthrow him. 2026 promises to be even more challenging, messy, and eventful.

The ghost flood control projects scam will continue to hound BBM and his administration in 2026 and beyond. His problem is compounded by broken promises that have fueled public skepticism about BBM’s seriousness in bringing to justice those involved in the scandal.

BBM vowed that those involved in the theft of hundreds of billions of people’s money, particularly high-ranking officials, would spend Christmas in jail. “I know, before Christmas, many that I named, I think… their cases will be done. The cases filed against them are complete and they will be jailed. They do not have a ‘Merry Christmas,’” he promised Filipinos in a press briefing last Nov. 12, 2025.

It’s already 2026, and no “big fish” spent Christmas in jail except minor Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) functionaries and one contractor. Filipinos suspect all the bravado of the administration is nothing but a smokescreen for a cover-up that is going on behind the scenes.

Public suspicion of a cover-up is further fueled by the resignation of Commissioner Rossana Fajardo of the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI). Her resignation left the three-member commission with one member — Chair Andres Reyes Jr. Earlier, Commissioner Rogelio “Babes” Singson vacated his post. Left with only one member, the future of the ICI is in tatters. BBM created the ICI through Executive Order No. 94, which is tasked with investigating the flood control projects scandal.

The ICI is a fact-finding body whose work is limited to conducting hearings and taking testimony, as well as receiving, gathering, reviewing, and evaluating evidence, reports, and information. It merely recommends the filing of charges to the Office of the Ombudsman. Without teeth and lacking a strong legal foundation, Filipinos are already skeptical of the ICI’s effectiveness, viewing its creation as a cosmetic move by the administration to appease public anger over the flood control projects scam.

With no high-ranking officials in jail and the ICI on the ropes, Filipinos’ suspicion that the current administration is not serious about bringing to justice those who connived to steal hundreds of billions of public funds through ghost flood control projects is strengthening. BBM is paying a heavy political price for another broken promise.

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted last Nov. 24–30, 2025, revealed BBM’s net trust rating hit rock bottom at negative 3%. The survey showed BBM had a 38% “much trust” rating against the 41% who had little trust in him. BBM’s October 2025 net trust rating was 7%. The latest SWS survey indicated BBM’s net trust rating plunged by 10 points. The downward trend is clear.

In 2026, BBM must recover politically to avoid an early lame-duck scenario. He must regain the trust of Filipinos by demonstrating his seriousness in going after the brains behind the flood control projects scandal. High-ranking officials — friends and foes of the administration — should be charged and arrested. Nothing will appease Filipinos’ anger over the historic corruption scandal more than seeing the masterminds of the scam get their just deserts. BBM must deliver on this to avoid political impotence.

BBM is facing a gargantuan dilemma in 2026. Either he delivers on his promise to bring to justice the “big fish” in the flood control scam, or he is relegated to political irrelevance as public opinion turns against him and his administration. BBM is torn between Scylla and Charybdis.

Should BBM take his crusade against corruption seriously, there is a possibility his allies (there are many of them) involved in the flood control mess will turn against him. He needs the support of these legislators (representatives and senators) to secure his presidency. Will he risk their abandonment to deliver justice to Filipinos? Will BBM face their wrath? Can he afford to be deserted by them?

If BBM breaks his promise for political expediency, he faces the fury of Filipinos fed up with the greed of corrupt politicians. Public anger has not subsided given that the flood control projects scam is the biggest corruption scandal in history. The scale of the theft — hundreds of billions — has stoked an unprecedented public uproar. Filipinos will harshly punish BBM and his administration should the scam end in “business as usual.”

What will it be for BBM? Which one should he choose? Is it the rock of anger of politicians (allies and foes) or the whirlpool of public rage? Will BBM do what Ulysses did? Between Scylla and Charybdis, Ulysses chose Scylla, sacrificing some crew members rather than risk the loss of his entire ship in the whirlpool. Does BBM have an ounce of Ulysses’ wisdom or even a grain of his courage? Filipinos will know this in 2026.

If BBM was losing sleep in 2025, he will have no rest in 2026. An emboldened Dutertes will continue to create trouble for him. The restless public will demand concrete action from him on the flood control projects scam. His administration will be besieged on many fronts, with various political factions and forces pushing their own agenda. How will BBM navigate the political turmoil in 2026 to secure his political survival? 2026 will be a pivotal year for the House of Marcos.

Bold, daring, and decisive action is required from BBM not only to regain control of the political narrative but to strategically position himself for the 2028 election. Should BBM lose the initiative and political control, a catastrophic fate awaits him and his family in 2028. Choosing between Scylla and Charybdis is among the critical decisions BBM must make in 2026.