BBM in the Bind

By Artchil B. Fernandez

How do you solve a problem like Inday Sara? This is the existential question Bongbong Marcos (BBM) is currently wrestling with. How he resolves the question determines the survival of House Marcos.

The Dutertes dominated the national conversation in the past weeks by escalating their conflict with the Marcoses. Their offensive consisted of three acts.

Act I was ignited by Vice President Sara Duterte. She went berserk when the House intensified its investigation into the spending of the PHP 612.5 million confidential and intelligence funds she received as vice president and secretary of education. The House was squeezing her assistants and aides to reveal how the controversial funds were used, particularly the PHP 125 million spent in a record of 11 days.

The detention of Sara Duterte’s chief of staff, Zuleika Lopez, sent her rushing to the House to shield the beleaguered staff from further pressure. She called a bizarre online press conference at 2 a.m., where she revealed an insane arrangement. In case she was harmed, Sara Duterte disclosed she had hired an assassin to kill BBM, the first lady, and Speaker Martin Romualdez. “No joke, no joke,” she exclaimed to emphasize the seriousness of her plot.

While the nation was still reeling from the public meltdown of the daughter, replete with assassination threats, Act II was initiated by the father. Former President Rodrigo Duterte, in a press conference at the family’s bailiwick, Davao City, asked the military to remedy the problem of “fractured governance.”

“There is a fractured governance in the Philippines today… It is only the military who can correct it,” the Duterte patriarch declared. “How long will you support a drug addict of a President?” he challenged the military establishment.

Asking the military to intervene in the “crisis of leadership,” as the elder Duterte called his family’s impasse with the Marcoses, has the effect of advocating for a coup d’état against the present administration. At the very least, the former president was goading the military to overthrow the civilian government.

To complement the call of the former president, Duterte supporters gathered at EDSA Shrine, calling for a “people power” against BBM. The crowd of several hundred stayed at the shrine for several days but failed to muster the hundreds of thousands necessary to precipitate a crisis. That was Act III.

The dictatorship of Marcos Sr. was overthrown by a combination of military revolt and “people power” mobilization in 1986, and the Dutertes attempted last week to replicate history. The move was a colossal failure as neither the military nor the Filipino public responded to the calls of the Dutertes.

The failure of the latest offensive of House Duterte against House Marcos is not the end but only the beginning, as the conflict between the two warring political dynastic families has leveled up. The clash has become a “game of survival” for them. It will end with only one remaining standing. Which one will be the ultimate survivor?

BBM is in a bind with the heightened dispute between his family and the Dutertes. How should he deal with the Dutertes? What is the best way to handle them? His actions will determine the survival of his family, politically and even physically. The Dutertes are no ordinary opponents, and their track record shows what they are capable of.

Immediately after Sara Duterte issued her assassination threat, BBM responded with toughness. “If it’s that easy to plan the assassination of a president, how much more for ordinary citizens? Such criminal attempts should not be ignored,” he publicly stated. “I will fight back,” BBM declared. For the first time, he appeared stern.

Days later, he softened. While Sara Duterte slammed the door on reconciliation, saying the conflict has “reached a point of no return,” BBM, on the other hand, remained hopeful. “Never say never,” BBM said on the possibility of patching up the conflict.

Impeachment of Sara Duterte was publicly floated as a consequence of her latest antics. BBM admitted he sent a message to House members that it is “unimportant” and not to proceed with the plan. When two impeachment complaints against the vice president were filed this week, BBM immediately distanced himself from the move.

The Dutertes are playing the brinkmanship game – the one who blinks loses. BBM, on the other hand, is sending mixed signals. How he manages the escalation of the Dutertes is the real leadership test for BBM. His family’s future depends on it.

BBM can either go for the juggernaut by delivering the final blow against the Dutertes or tolerate their bratty behavior and allow them to survive.

House Marcos can finish off the Dutertes by impeaching Sara Duterte, filing numerous cases against them, and handing over their patriarch to the International Criminal Court (ICC). This multi-pronged offensive will cripple and handicap the Dutertes.

If BBM treats the Dutertes with kid gloves in the current standoff, it will allow them to recover and resuscitate their political chances in 2028. After 2025, BBM enters his lame-duck years, and he can no longer effectively neutralize the resurgent Dutertes by that time. A Duterte victory in 2028 will be catastrophic to House Marcos.

The conflict between Team Tigre and Team Agila has entered a critical stage, and this will play out in the 2025 election. The situation is delicate for both parties. House Marcos, being in power, has the upper hand, but a wrong move on their part will cost them their advantage. A tactical or strategic error by the Marcoses is an opportunity for the Dutertes to turn the tables and reverse their current misfortune.

Will BBM chop off the Dutertes now or stick to his conflict-averse persona?