Battle of five armies

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Inquirer columnist Richard Heydarian had a curious take on the current political situation of the country. The Philippines, according to him, is mired in “hopeless factionalism.” With a Tolkienian take on the political terrain, Heydarian said the country is gearing for a “Battle of Five Armies.”

“First, you have the administration and pro-Marcos loyalists, who are clearly in survival mode. Then you have the pro-Duterte camp, who are more than excited to hijack anticorruption protests. Radicals, meanwhile, prefer a ‘resign all’ formula to pave the way for a new Bolshevik-style regime. As if this weren’t quixotic enough, there is also a protofascist faction pushing for a coup-born transitional council under the aegis of big business and ex-military officers. The fifth faction is the liberal-progressive coalition behind the ‘Trillion Peso March,’ which happens to be under the spiritual guidance of Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David.”

In the aftermath of widespread public outrage over the ghost flood control projects scam, where hundreds of billions of public funds were stolen, five groups are contesting to seize control of the political narrative and channel the anger of Filipinos toward their respective agendas. Who among them will prevail in the end?

A survey by WR Numero released in November 2025 reveals that the political space largely remains contested, with no group dominating. Asked whether they are pro-administration, anti-administration, or independent, nearly half of Filipinos—or 41 percent—said they are independent. Only 17 percent admitted they are pro-administration, while 8 percent claimed they support the opposition. Over a third (35 percent) declared they are not sure.

The same survey further aggregated the political stance of Filipinos in terms of self-identification. Asked whom they support, 34 percent said they are pro-Duterte, and 15 percent are pro-Marcos. Slightly over a tenth (12 percent) are pro-opposition (Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, Sen. Bam Aquino, et al.), while more than a third (39 percent) said “none of the above.”

With 41 percent of Filipinos saying they are independent, and another 35 percent declaring they are not sure (neither pro-administration, anti-administration, nor independent), more than three-fourths (76 percent) have no political leaning. This is a huge chunk of the Filipino public—a high majority. This is the number of Filipinos the five armies will battle and fight to win over in the coming months.

The pro-Marcos camp, as Heydarian pointed out, is in survival mode. Their fight for survival is not only in the here and now, but beyond 2028. First, they must ensure that Bongbong Marcos (BBM) finishes his term. In 2028, they must also secure a win for an anti-Duterte candidate for their safety and security. A win by the Dutertes in 2028 would be catastrophic for House Marcos. Not only is their political life—but their physical life—at stake. Hell hath no fury like the Dutertes scorned and betrayed.

While the Dutertes are itching for vengeance, they are also in survival mode between now and 2028. The Marcoses, on the ropes, will throw everything at them—including the kitchen sink. Staying politically alive under BBM’s rule is the top priority of the Dutertes. Should the incoming onslaught of the Marcoses succeed, the Dutertes will have no 2028 to look forward to. Preventing their political obliteration is a must for them.

Meanwhile, the Pink forces are still groping to find the right combination and messaging to present a credible and strong Third Force—an alternative to the warring House Duterte and House Marcos. They must consolidate their gains from the last election, where their candidates (Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan) performed well. They must go beyond the mantra of “good governance” and expand to kitchen-table issues that matter most to Filipinos, especially those in the margins. A purely middle-class messaging anchored on “moral politics” will not win them the 2028 election.

Various factions of the Left are still stuck in the division between purists and pragmatists. Ideological doldrums, factionalism, political marginalization and isolation, and irrelevance are only some of the problems besetting the Left forces. Their latest “resign all” call failed to gain traction and only divided the non-Duterte/non-Marcos movement calling for accountability in the flood control projects mess. Unless the various factions of the Left find their way into mainstream politics, they will remain a non-player in 2028—likely reduced to a lonely voice in the wilderness.

The big business–military alliance is not gaining support, especially from the public, for its call to install a ruling junta. Filipinos, including the leadership and rank and file of the military, are allergic to extra-constitutional ways of rearranging the political order. Filipinos are averse to a junta in the same manner they are lukewarm to the “transition council” proposal of the Left forces.

With the vast majority of Filipinos unaligned, it is interesting to see how the five armies battle to push their political narrative. Which one will eventually dominate the public sphere? Their clash will shake and shape the political field in the coming months. The Dutertes have a lead in numbers, but a third of the public behind them will not win them the war. House Marcos, on the other hand, has the advantage of being in power, while the Pink forces can be the tipping factor.

With no group likely to dominate the political landscape, a reconfiguration of political blocs is a possible scenario. Alignment and realignment of forces are a probable outcome. “UniPink” is already floated as a possibility to foil the return of the Dutertes. Should this happen, where does this leave the Left forces and the protofascists? Interesting times lie ahead. The country is headed to the exciting part.