Are we on the 2nd Wave of COVID-19?

By Art Jimenez

Health Secretary Duque’s casual statement during the May 20 online Senate public hearing that we were, in fact, on the second wave of COVID-19 raised waves of disagreements from the Senate and Malacañan. Daggers of criticisms were shot at him laced with renewed demand for his resignation or dismissal.

Almost immediately and probably scared out of its wits the DOH, through Dr. Beverly Ho DOH communications service director, retracted the second-wave claim and admitted the country was still on its first wave of the dreaded disease. She apologized “for the confusion this has caused.”

During a House Health Committee hearing, an unrepentant Duque added to our collective confusion by describing the DOH-admitted “first wave” with a new terminology he alone understood. He said what we have is not a second wave but a “first major wave of sustained transmission.”

That First Major Wave supposedly crested when three Chinese from Wuhan, China were found COVID-19 positive here in the Philippines. To Duque, this peak of the first wave was followed by minimal cases in the following months and leading to the peak on March 31, when there were a high 538 new cases, 49 recovered patients, and 88 deaths. That constituted the first wave and the onset of the second wave where we are still at, according to the Health Department.

Dr. Ho followed, “Since then, the average number of cases had declined to around 220 cases per day. This is the reason why we are saying we have started to flatten the curve.”

However, Ho did not mention, much less explain, how those statistics were arrived at.

The pandemic curve flattens in a variety of ways and, ergo, rein in the further spread of the deadly virus. Foremost are a medicinal cure and discovery of a vaccine. Next is expanded testing of possible positives to determine or even approximate how widespread the pandemic has become. Fourth is contact tracing where the tracer helps a COVID-19 positive to recall those with whom he/she had contact, get in touch and notify the latter of their possible infection, and provide the necessary assistance based on standing protocols.

Fifth are, by now familiar to all of us, the usual use of physical distancing, wearing of protective masks, and personal hygiene.

I have several points to make on the DOH pronouncements. But due to space constraints, I will reserve these in the next column. Meantime, I defer to the reactions of an incredulous Senator Francis Pangilinan who asked Secretary Duque some probing questions. He gave his interesting reactions as well on testing and, of course, the supposed second wave we are in today.

Below are paraphrases of the senator’s conversational, often telegraphic, statements although most are direct quotes.

Pangilinan wondered: Yesterday, “Secretary Duque claimed the curve has been flattened. But today, we are now on the second wave. Kataka-taka yun.”

“It was said new cases were going down. How can that be when our mass testing is even less than 0.2 percent (of our targeted samples) when Vietnam already has 2.8 percent? How can we say we are mass testing when are not doing mass testing?”

On March 20, DOH said “hindi pa kailangan ang mass testing.” Then just 11 days later, COVID-19 confirmed cases peaked at 538.

“Thirty thousand (30,000) tests a day is the target” but actual performance is way below that target. In fact, there are lots of backlogs.

“How much is the backlog on test results? You cannot say new cases are going down (and therefore the curve is flattening) until we see the results of these pending 6,500 backlogs”

“How can you flatten the curve when you have backlogs and if we are on the second wave, why are we opening the economy?”

On “April 4, Duque said “Covid rate in the Philippines is the lowest; therefore, correct “ang strategy, but on May 19, our fatality rate is second to the highest and three to four times that of Vietnam while our recovery rate is the lowest. What happened to the strategy?”

May 19, DOH claimed (the Covid) curve has been flattened but today, May 20, DOH says we are now on the second wave. Kataka-taka.”

“We don’t want a second wave to happen, tapos, nasa second wave na pala tayo?”

-To be Concluded-