A Battle for Survival

By Artchil B. Fernandez

On May 12, Filipinos will cast their votes in the most consequential election for House Duterte and House Marcos. The 2025 midterm election, in fact, has become a battle for survival between the two warring parties.

The tectonic conflict between the erstwhile allies defined the 2025 election and shaped the campaign narratives. The 2025 election turned out to be a contest between the themes pushed by Team Kadiliman and Team Kasamaan, drowning out Theme Kabutihan. This is a sad and tragic trajectory for the nation.

The brewing conflict between House Duterte and House Marcos burst into the open in 2025. The current clash of Team Kadiliman and Team Kasamaan is nasty and brutal, and is unfolding to be a winner-take-all, take-no-prisoners war of attrition. However, 2025 is merely a prelude. The climax of this long-drawn war is in 2028.

The outcome of tomorrow’s election, nevertheless, will have a major impact on the 2028 elections and will define the political terrain of the country over the next three years. The stakes are high for the Dutertes and the Marcoses in this election.

House Marcos crossed the Rubicon this year by inflicting two successive fatal blows to the Dutertes. In February, Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached by Congress. More than two-thirds of House members signed the impeachment complaint, fast-tracking the whole process. Her Senate trial will commence after the election.

The Dutertes were still reeling from the shock of Sara Duterte’s impeachment when the Marcoses delivered their coup de grâce—the arrest and handover of the Duterte patriarch to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The detention of the former president in The Hague is a decapitation. Inflicted in the middle of the 2025 election campaign, the decisive move by House Marcos is aimed at crippling the electoral chances of House Duterte. Suddenly, the rallying point of the Duterte supporters is gone and effectively silenced. The impact on the Dutertes is devastating.

Burning bridges with the Dutertes left the Marcoses no choice but to wage an all-out war against them. The Dutertes, bitter and angry, are raging for revenge with their patriarch forcibly taken from them and now a lonely prisoner in a faraway land.

Given the intensity of their strife with the Dutertes, who are hungry for vengeance, the Marcoses must secure a favorable outcome in the 2025 election, particularly in the Senate race. Bringing the impeachment of Sara Duterte to its logical conclusion is the ultimate goal of the Marcoses in this election. A guilty verdict is crucial to the survival of the Marcoses beyond 2028.

Electing senators who are likely to vote guilty in Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial is important to the Marcoses. To remove the vice president from her post and bar her from running for president in the 2028 elections, 16 guilty votes are needed. This is a tall order. Half of the Senate seats are being contested. The challenge for the present administration is to ensure that its candidates who make it to the Magic 12 will be on its side during the impeachment trial.

Two original administration candidates—Imee Marcos and Camille Villar—earned the endorsement of Sara Duterte. Should they win, they will likely vote for her acquittal. In the last days of the campaign, Imee Marcos was officially dropped from the administration slate while Villar went missing, though still officially part of the ticket. Oddly, President Bongbong Marcos (BBM), in the final administration sorties, did not mention the absent Villar when he endorsed his bets. This indicates that the line is drawn and Villar is being quietly dropped from the administration slate. Can Villar survive without the machinery of the administration?

The Dutertes, on the other hand, need nine votes to acquit Sara Duterte. Among their 10 candidates, two have good showings in the surveys and another two are among the “probable winners.” For the Dutertes, the Senate election outcome will determine whether Sara Duterte is in contention in 2028 or not. They must secure as many acquittal votes as possible to prevent their political marginalization and achieve their revenge. Will the consolidation of their base be enough to carry their candidates through?

With the Marcoses and the Dutertes dominating the campaign, the alternative to them has been overshadowed and marginalized. The so-called Third Force, carrying the Kabutihan theme, is hardly heard, and it appears they do not matter in this contest. Worse, the Third Force is fragmented, failing to unify into a single slate. This is catastrophic since a genuine alternative is badly needed by the country. Should another rout of the Third Force happen, its political future is in doubt. The Duterte-Marcos conflict will dominate the political discourse over the next three years.

The Marcoses badly need an outcome that demonstrates the administration’s dominance, especially as BBM enters his lame-duck years. The success of their project—to disable and neutralize the Dutertes—depends on the result of the election. They must marshal enough votes to remove Sara Duterte from her position and prevent her from running for the presidency in 2028. Otherwise, they are in grave danger.

For the Dutertes, tomorrow’s election will decide their doom or boon. A favorable outcome brings them closer to their dream of a political comeback, while a defeat of their senatorial candidates inches them toward political ruin.

It’s a make-or-break moment for the fractured Third Force. Their loss in tomorrow’s election will put into question their social relevance as well as their place in the country’s political life. A good showing will revive their political prospects.

Tomorrow’s election is a turning point for the Marcoses, the Dutertes and the splintered Third Force. The outcome of the election will be critical for their political survival. Their political future hinges on the outcome of the election.