39% of Filipinos favor VP Sara’s conviction, while a third prefer acquittal — Momentum Research

MANILA, Philippines — With Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial down to one charge, Filipinos are starting to form a clearer opinion as to how the court should render its verdict, the newly released October 2026 National Momentum Survey found.

The non-commissioned survey, conducted from October 16 to 19, asked Filipino adults nationwide whether the impeachment court should convict or acquit Duterte.

It found that 38.8% of Filipino adults believe the vice president should be convicted, while 33.8% say she should be acquitted — a five-percentage-point gap. Meanwhile, a quarter are still on the fence, with 22.6% of adults unsure and 4.7% who refuse to answer (See Figure 1).

Figure 1. Must the impeachment court acquit or convict VP Sara (acquit or convict only)

In a separate question with the option “it’s too early to tell,” fewer Filipino adults answered this compared to earlier surveys. Only 25.7% say it is too early to have a verdict, down 22 percentage points from 47.9% in the August 2026 National Momentum Survey (See Figure 2).

Support for conviction also edges out acquittal in this question, but by six points (32.4% vs. 26.1%), while 12.3% are unsure and 3.4% refuse to answer.

Figure 2. Must the impeachment court acquit or convict VP Sara

The Senate impeachment court is set to resume the trial on November 9, marking the start of the fourth month of proceedings since it began in July.

Prior to the nearly month-long break, the prosecution concluded its presentation of evidence and withdrew three of the four articles against the vice president. It instead decided to rest its case on the remaining charge, unexplained wealth.

After the defense presents its case, the Senate impeachment court is expected to vote on whether to convict or acquit Duterte based on the single charge of unexplained wealth.

Under the latest ruling of Presiding Officer Sen. Chiz Escudero, conviction requires the vote of two-thirds of the senator-judges who are legally able to take part in the vote. This excludes senators who are suspended, detained, or legally restrained.

Should Duterte be convicted, she would become the first vice president in Philippine history to be removed from office through impeachment.

Only Mindanao is more likely to prefer acquittal, with a third unsure More than half of Filipino adults (53.1%) in Mindanao believe Duterte should be acquitted, while only less than a tenth (8.0%) favor conviction. Mindanao, a Duterte stronghold, also has the highest share of unsure adults at 32.2% (See Figure 3).

Figure 3. Must the impeachment court acquit or convict VP Sara (by region)

Opinion is more settled in Metro Manila, where adults slightly lean more toward conviction (52.0%) over acquittal (40.0%), and only less than a tenth are undecided.

Support for conviction, however, leads by a wider margin in the Rest of Luzon, where 49.6% prefer it and 23.4% prefer acquittal, a gap of about 26 points. About a quarter of adults in the region are undecided, with 23.9% unsure and 3.2% who refuse to answer.

Visayas, on the other hand, has more undecided adults (27.7%) than the Rest of Luzon and Metro Manila. Still, it is slightly more likely to believe Duterte should be convicted (41.1%) than acquitted (31.2%) on her unexplained wealth charge.

Gen Z, Boomers favor conviction, while Millennials prefer acquittal; Gen X divided Across generations, the survey found that half of Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation Filipinos (51.5%) believe the impeachment court must convict the vice president, while 21.4% prefer an acquittal and 20.8% are unsure and 6.3% refuse to answer (See Figure 4).

Figure 4. Must the impeachment court acquit or convict VP Sara (by generation)

They are followed by Gen Z adults, who are more likely to want a conviction (42.8%) than acquittal (27.0%). However, about 3 in 10 adults of this generation gave no response, with 24.8% unsure and 5.3% declining to answer.

On the other hand, Gen X is divided, with 40.9% who want the court to convict Duterte, 35.2% who prefer an acquittal, and 19.2% who are unsure.

Millennials are the only generation in which acquittal (43.7%) leads the share of conviction (29.1%), and about a quarter are unsure (23.6%).

Pro-Opposition, Pro-Marcos adults support conviction

Across factional groups, majority of Pro-Opposition (72.9%) and Pro-Marcos adults (63.5%) have expressed their support for Duterte’s conviction (See Figure 5).

Independents exhibit a similar preference, with more adults saying the vice president should be convicted than acquitted (43.5% vs. 25.0%). They, however, have the highest share of unsure adults at 27.8% and no answers at 4.0%.

Figure 5. Must the impeachment court acquit or convict VP Sara (by factional partisanship)

Meanwhile, Duterte supporters are largely determined to see the vice president acquitted of her unexplained wealth charge (67.8%). Only 12.1% of them support a conviction and 16.3% are unsure.

Conducted from October 16 to 19, the National Momentum Survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,401 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Subnational margins of error are ±7.0% for the National Capital Region, ±3.8% for the Rest of Luzon (North, South, and Central Luzon), ±6.1% for Visayas, and ±5.8% for Mindanao — all at a 95% confidence level.

Find the complete survey results on our public dashboard at momentumresearch.ph.