2025: A Turning Point for Durtertes and Marcoses

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The year 2025, without doubt, is a turning point for the Dutertes and Marcoses. Filipinos were riveted last year when the simmering conflict between erstwhile allies broke into the open. This year, the war between Team Kadiliman and Team Kasamaan will reach a critical milestone, which will determine their fate in the 2028 election — the ultimate battle royale.

The political brawl between House Duterte and House Marcos is already exacting a heavy toll on them. This is borne out by the latest surveys.

A Pulse Asia survey conducted from November 26 to December 3, 2024, reveals that the trust and approval ratings of the top officials of the land, President Bongbong Marcos (BBM) and Vice President Sara Duterte, suffered a decline.

On the whole, the approval rating of BBM declined from 50 percent in September to 48 percent. In geographical areas, BBM’s approval rating in Mindanao steeply went down from 26 percent to 14 percent, while in the Visayas, it dipped to 48 percent from 52 percent. In the National Capital Region (NCR), BBM’s approval rating decreased by 1 percent, from 51 percent to 50 percent. It is only in Luzon where BBM’s approval rating went up, from 61 percent to 65 percent.

Across socio-economic groups, BBM’s approval rating worsened the most among Class E, where it dropped from 47 percent to 35 percent. In Class D, his approval rating decreased by 1 percent, from 52 percent to 51 percent. However, BBM’s approval rating improved among ABC classes, where it increased to 39 percent from 35 percent.

BBM’s overall trust rating also fell to 47 percent from 50 percent. The biggest reduction occurred in Mindanao, where it declined from 21 percent to 14 percent. In the Visayas, his trust rating went down to 45 percent from 50 percent. In Luzon, BBM’s trust rating slightly decreased from 64 percent to 62 percent, while in NCR, it dropped to 52 percent from 53 percent.

Looking at socio-economic groups, BBM’s trust rating crashed significantly in Class E, from 47 percent to 33 percent — a 14-point drop. In Class D, his trust rating declined to 49 percent from 52 percent, while it increased from 38 percent to 40 percent in ABC classes.

If BBM’s ratings were down, those of Vice President Sara Duterte were worse. On the whole, her approval rating dwindled to 50 percent from 60 percent. She registered the sharpest decline in the Visayas, where it dipped from 71 percent to 51 percent — a 20-point drop. Even in her bailiwick, Mindanao, her approval rating decreased from 93 percent to 80 percent. In Luzon, Inday Sara’s rating tumbled from 46 percent to 40 percent, while in NCR, it also shrunk from 36 percent to 34 percent.

Among socio-economic groups, Sara Duterte’s approval rating also dropped, with Class D registering the biggest decline, from 59 percent to 49 percent. Her approval rating also fell among Class E, decreasing to 68 percent from 76 percent. It is only in ABC classes where her approval rating remained unchanged at 44 percent.

The trust rating of Sara Duterte also plunged overall, from 61 percent to 49 percent. Her trust rating plummeted drastically in the Visayas, where it sank to 47 percent from 74 percent — a 27-point drop. In Mindanao, her trust rating fell to 81 percent from 90 percent, while in Luzon and NCR, it decreased from 47 percent to 37 percent and from 37 percent to 34 percent, respectively.

Sara Duterte also did not fare well across socio-economic groups, where her trust rating fell. Her trust rating suffered the most among Class D, where it dipped from 59 percent to 47 percent. Among Class E, her trust rating declined from 77 percent to 67 percent, while in ABC classes, it fell to 43 percent from 49 percent.

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from December 12 to 18, 2024, also shows that the net trust ratings of BBM and Sara Duterte fell. BBM’s net trust rating dropped from 33 percent in September to 29 percent. Sara Duterte’s net trust rating also went down, from 29 percent to 23 percent. BBM’s net trust rating has been on a downward trend — 44 percent in July, 33 percent in September, and 29 percent in December. The same trend is noted in Sara Duterte’s ratings — 45 percent in July, 29 percent in September, and 23 percent in December. This is an alarming development for both BBM and Sara Duterte.

Given the survey findings, 2025 is pivotal for both the Dutertes and Marcoses. Their conflict has not benefited them. In fact, it is turning out to be a case of mutually assured destruction. The challenge for them is how to turn things around.

By comparison, the Dutertes are in a worse situation than the Marcoses, based on the survey results. While both BBM and Sara Duterte suffered a decline in their approval and trust ratings, the plunge in Duterte’s ratings is huge. It appears the conflict inflicted the most damage on the Dutertes. But the Marcoses cannot rejoice either, as BBM was also hurt politically by the current brawl.

With the 2025 election around the corner, expect both sides to be aggressive in weakening each other. Somehow, each of them will work hard not only to undermine the other side but to score political points with Filipinos to improve their public standing. The surveys have already revealed that both sides are not gaining from the conflict, but it is too late for them to reconcile and work out their differences. Too much “blood” has been spilled, and the conflict has reached a point of no return. Bridges have been burned.

The only option left for both sides is to win at all costs. This has become a survival game for the Dutertes and the Marcoses — a winner-take-all match. It will play out in all its blood and gore in 2025. Instead of bringing unity, both parties have brought division, discord, and dissension to the nation.