2024: Dutertes’ annus horribilis

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The year 2024 is annus horribilis for the Dutertes. Future historians will likely mark 2024 as the beginning of the end of Dutertismo. This is not the future the Dutertes had in mind three years ago, who thought the best is yet to come for the dynastic family. Instead of rosy life, the Dutertes at present are on the edge of the precipice, fighting for their political or even physical (as imagined by Inday Sara) survival.

In 2022, the Duterte patriarch ended his term with a 73 percent approval rating. His daughter, Sara Duterte, was elected vice president with 32,208,417 (61.53 percent) of official votes, a substantial majority. With their backing, Bongbong Marcos (BBM) captured the majority of the votes and became president. The Dutertes were on cloud nine.

Things looked bright in the next twelve years in the calculation of the Dutertes. They assumed they would have a blissful life under the rule of the Marcoses, whose comeback they believe they were instrumental in. The prime of their life would come in 2028 when Sara Duterte succeeds BBM. This was the well-laid plan of the Dutertes.

This is the problem when one tries to play God. The future is always open-ended for mortals, and “the best-laid schemes of mice and men” can go awry. Fate plays dice; men abide. “Most gods throw dice, but Fate plays chess, and you don’t find out till too late that he’s been playing with two queens all along,” author Terry Pratchett declared.

Fate indeed played a cruel joke on the Dutertes. The nightmare they feared the most—that would have happened had the despised “dilawans” or “pinklawans” won in 2022—is now a reality with their erstwhile ally, the Marcoses, leading the torment. Unthinkable!

An alliance solely bound by self-interest is certain to unravel. In the case of UniTeam – the Duterte-Marcos alliance – it happened as soon as they won the election and not at the end of their rule as expected. Cracks in the UniTeam started to appear even before it took power. Sara Duterte publicly sought the secretary of national defense portfolio but was instead handed that of education. From then on, things started to sour between the Dutertes and the Marcoses.

The open break between the two political dynastic families became real in 2024. From sniping at the sidelines, the Dutertes held a prayer rally in January 2024 in their bailiwick, Davao City, where they openly attacked BBM. The patriarch called BBM a “drug addict,” while the sons called for his resignation. The daughter was seen at the side laughing, which rankled and incensed the First Lady.

In the middle of 2024, Sara Duterte resigned as education secretary and started to publicly criticize BBM and his administration. The administration retaliated by initiating investigations on the connection between the war on drugs of the previous regime and extrajudicial killings, as well as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator (POGOs) and Sara Duterte’s use of her confidential funds as DepEd secretary and vice president.

Stung by the offensive of the Marcoses, Sara Duterte threatened to kill BBM, the First Lady, and BBM’s cousin, Speaker Romualdez. The Duterte patriarch, on the other hand, called on the military to withdraw their support from a “drug addict” president. The Dutertes capped their counterattack with a call for a “people power” to topple BBM. The Dutertes are now under investigation for their incendiary calls and moves.

2024 ended with three impeachment cases filed in Congress for the removal of Vice President Sara Duterte from her position. Dark times are upon the Dutertes.

Through a series of congressional investigations, the Marcoses are digging up the dark past of the Dutertes, not only publicly exposing it but also accompanied by threats of holding them accountable by filing court cases. The budget of the Office of the Vice President was reduced by more than half to cripple Sara Duterte. Should she be impeached and found guilty by the impeachment court, she will be disqualified from running for president in 2028. The Dutertes are certainly on the ropes now.

Given the precarious situation of the Dutertes at present, is it the end of the road for them? Can they be written off politically? It will depend on three things.

First, while the Dutertes are in a difficult situation now, it does not mean they are completely helpless. They retain considerable support and have a fanatical mass base that can be harnessed for countermoves. Their survival depends on how they play their cards in 2025, a pivotal year for them. To survive, the Dutertes must outmaneuver the Marcoses by exploiting the weakness and vulnerability of their former ally. To do this, the Dutertes must sharpen their political acumen and creativity.

The survival of the Dutertes is also linked to how the Marcoses deal with them. BBM is conflict-averse and told allies in Congress he is not in the mood to impeach Sara Duterte. If the Marcoses strike a fatal blow, there is a possibility the Dutertes will be consigned to oblivion and completely marginalized. If the Marcoses treat the Dutertes with kid gloves, it might provide them the opening to ride out the storm.

The last factor is the play of external forces. The Philippines has geopolitical importance, and superpowers like China and the United States will bid to bring the country under their sphere of influence. Should China continue to bet on the Dutertes, this will provide them with crucial resources in their fight with the Marcoses.

2024 is a horrible year for the Dutertes. They are under intense pressure and on the defensive politically. Their misdeeds are being made public, and if the present administration makes its threats real, the whole family – father, daughter, and sons – can go to jail. They are also being squeezed of public funds, and the whole might of the state is being harnessed by the Marcoses to crush them.

In 2025, the Duterte-Marcos clash will intensify. Next year will be politically exciting and colorful.