2022 election paradox

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The 2022 election is the most unique electoral exercise in recent memory. For the first time in the post-war history of the country, the ruling administration has no candidate in a presidential contest. That alone makes this election exceptional.

Deep into the national campaign the political landscape is topsy-turvy. With a lot of twists, the 2022 election defies the usual pattern observed in Philippine elections in the last few decades producing an election paradox.

An interesting 2022 election paradox is manifested in the aberrant behavior of traditional politicians. Election Day is a month away and at this time in past elections, most of the traditional politicians, both local and national are gravitating towards the survey front-runner.

Who does not want to be identified with a winner? These traditional politicians are always on the lookout for their personal interests and want to safeguard and advance them under the incoming administration. Practicality and political survival dictate that politicians, particularly the locally based, are in the good graces of the new administration. A friendly national leadership opens a can of goodies to local government units while a hostile one brings misfortune and even misery.

It is paradoxical that in the 2022 election, it is the second placer who is getting the endorsement of many local politicians and not the one leading the survey. In recent weeks, the country saw many local officials declaring their support to Vice President Leni Robredo. Why are they flocking to her instead of the survey leader? Do these politicians no longer want to be on the side of the “winner” or there is something they are aware of on the ground that pundits overlooked? What explains this seemingly contradictory and odd behavior?

More perplexing is the behavior of the members of political parties. The survey leader got a major boost when the Cusi-wing of PDP-Laban identified with Du30, the National Unity Party (NUP) and Nationalista Party (NP) decided to back his candidacy. Yet many members of these parties publicly threw their support to Vice President Leni Robredo.

Eastern Samar Governor Ben Evardone PDP-Laban (Cusi-wing) vice president in Visayas and close ally of Du30 is backing the vice president and many elements in the party are with him. NUP party president Elpidio Barzaga, the 4th District Representative of Cavite, threw his support to Leni Robredo and he is not alone in their party. Many local and national officials of NUP have also followed Barzaga’s footstep. Some NP members are also in the camp of Vice President Roberdo like Iloilo second district representative Michael Gorriceta who openly endorsed her.

Decision of Du30 to stay neutral in the presidential contest is the ultimate embodiment of the 2022 election paradox. The main reason he wanted his daughter to succeed him is to ensure he can retire in peace and with security. He knows cases will be filed against him once he steps down from the presidency considering the killings, abuses and large-scale corruption that happened under his administration. The International Criminal Court (ICC) will most likely charge him with crimes against humanity.

Given the dark prospect he faces, Du30 must be in the good side of the next administration. Supporting the survey leader is prudent move for Du30 to secure his well-being. His daughter is allied with that candidate and his party had endorsed him.  Given these circumstances, his endorsement of the candidate is widely expected.

To the surprise of many, confounding political observers, Du30 refused to endorse the survey leader or any candidate for that matter.

“I’m not supporting any presidential candidate. Neutral ako. (I’m neutral),” he declared in a joint meeting with the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict’s (NTF-ELCAC’s) and the Regional Task Force (RTF) Central Visayas last week.

Why is he staying away from the survey leader which can place him in a dangerous situation in case the candidate wins and once he is no longer president?  Why is he taking the risk?

Is there something Du30 as well as national and local politicians who made a highly unusual decision to move away or stay away from the survey front-runner know that experts, pundits and even surveys missed? Are they aware of the dramatic shift of or on the ground and the flux or fluidity of the situation?

Even surveys have become a casualty in this highly irregular 2022 election. The proliferation of the so-called “kalye” surveys has greatly undermined the work of reputable survey firms. With so many surveys being done, most of them do not follow or observe the scientific rigidity of a legitimate survey, surveys have lost their luster in the 2022 election unlike in past elections where they are highly valued. Added factor is the pandemic lockdowns and restrictions that made polling difficult and challenging and this could have affected the survey results.

It does not help that reputable pollster like Pulse Asia made changes in its polling work.  In previous elections, Pulse Asia always included the AB classes in its surveys. Now, it only surveys CDE classes. While Pulse Asia said AB classes are small anyway, why exclude them now and not in previous election surveys? Why is there no note that the survey results only reflect the sentiment of CDE groups in press releases? This important point is omitted giving the impression that the survey result represents the entire voting population and not the CDE segments of the population.

The 2022 election is shaping up to be a sui generis election in the country’s history. It is full of paradox, irony and simile. It is hard to be certain of the outcome.