By Herbert Vego
THERE was a time when we believed what we read, heard and saw in the print, radio and TV media. But now, with the headlines screaming dubious political surveys passed off as news, we tend to disbelieve. Take note of yesterday’s banner headline of a supposedly credible newspaper: “Marcos keeps lead, but Robredo narrows gap.”
The news reporter tried to “balance” his story by insinuating in his lead that while candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., or BBM for short, still leads in the latest Pulse Asia survey, Vice President Leni Robredo “has picked up significantly.”
Voter preference for the son and namesake of the late dictator had allegedly dropped to 56 percent from the previous 60, while Robredo’s jumped from 15 to 24%.
Pity, pity, pity be on the eight other presidentiables for shedding off a number or two from their one-digit percentages.
What has Marcos done to bewitch more than half of the survey responders? Having lost the vice-presidency to Robredo in 2016, how could he be so popular?
Former Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio could not believe that a “certified convict” could gain public approval. In a speaking engagement, he said that in July 1995, the Quezon City regional trial court (branch 105) convicted Marcos for failure to pay income taxes from 1982 to 1985, sentencing him to serve a total of seven years in prison, but in vain.
As a Journalism graduate, I know too well that the lead of the cited news violates the cardinal “five Ws and one H rule” that answers at least five of the six questions, namely “who, what, where, when, why and “how”.
The monthly surveys by Pulse Asia, SWS, Octa Research, Publikus, Laylo Research, among other commercial pollsters, do not reveal “who” the 1,200 to 2,400 face-to-face subjects are.
Pulse Asia chairman Ronald Holmes said in a TV interview that it takes five million (₱5,000,000) pesos to conduct just one survey but kept mum on “who” pays for it. If Marcos does, then he would get what he wants.
Obviously, it takes much more than that amount to announce the survey results on radio, TV and on the front pages of newspapers on the same date.
There is the “when” specified in Pulse Asia’s March 17 to 21, 2022 surveys but not the “where” or locations. No, not even in one of the 42,046 barangays throughout the Philippines. Thus, it is impossible to verify whether the claimed “nationwide” surveys have really taken place.
The “how” – by “random sampling” kuno — is as puzzling as the “who”. Why would a mere 2,400 unseen souls represent 67 million visible Filipino voters? Millions of visible ones, in contrast, have personally shown up in the Leni-Kiko rallies.
And what about the unanswered “why”? A news reporter doesn’t need to explain why actress Angel Locsin married Neil Arce. But he has to know and report why most of the voters surveyed prefer Marcos to Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, Isko Moreno, Ping Lacson, et al.
As to the “why” of Marcos blazing ahead of Robredo in the presidential surveys, “ewan” appears to be the answer. Having lost to Robredo for vice-president and having done nothing significant in his previous roles as congressman and senator, Marcos could not present an iota of reason why he deserves the highest political position.
On the other hand, if the tens of thousands of warm bodies swarming each Leni Robredo rally is not convincing enough to shatter the surveys, what about mock elections in school campuses where she consistently leads by 70 to 90%.
Going over to the vice-presidential race, BBM’s running mate Sara Duterte-Carpio leads with 56 percent against runner-up Tito Sotto’s 20.
The BBM-Sara tandem has consistently topped all previous surveys, always with a majority of more than 50% of the surveyed. And so even if their opponents withdraw today to unite behind Leni for president and Kiko Pangilinan for vice-president, these two would still have no chance of overturning the numbers.
Whereas, if the surveys were kinder to Robredo by giving BBM a lower percentage, say 40%, in the surveys, “the last woman standing” would then be in the position to bag 60%.
It is also ironic that Sara, being the only daughter of President Duterte, had refused to run for the higher position despite a Pulse Asia survey –allegedly done months before the October 8, 2021 deadline for filing of certificates of candidacy — positioning her higher than Marcos.
To quote a CNN dispatch dated April 22, 2021, “The poll said 27% of respondents prefer the First Daughter over other possible candidates. She was followed by former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (13%), Senator Grace Poe (12%), Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso (12%), and Senator Manny Pacquiao (11%).”
Remember those “Run Sara Run” streamers greeting motorists cruising on busy roads? They seemed to announce her intention to run for president under the PDP-Laban party.
The party has not fielded a presidential or vice-presidential candidate but has endorsed Marcos and Sara. To cap the mystery, the elder Duterte who called BBM a “weak leader” has refrained from endorsing him or any other presidentiable. He would only campaign for Sara.
“Nakakalokah!”
